Arch Capital Group (ACGL)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
$98.10-1.73%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ACGL
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $98 ACGL trades at 1.4× p/b, below its 1.7× p/b peer median. Our $166 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits well above the analyst range. Analysts target $102–$126. Note: our $166 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($102–$126). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $115.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $536.95 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $540.12 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $129.45 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/B | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$102.00 – $126.00 (median $115.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-08-03
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $118.42 |
| 1.7 |
| 68.89 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $117.61 | 6.8 | 17.36 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $107.26 | 11.1 | 9.64 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $78.76 | 1.4 | 55.14 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $92.31 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $98.71 | 9.1 | 10.81 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $162.76 | 14.0 | 11.62 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/B | 3Y | $180.10 | 1.7 | 104.78 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $161.06 | 6.8 | 23.77 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $84.76 | 11.1 | 7.61 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $51.48 | 1.4 | 36.04 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $78.17 | 9.1 | 8.56 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/B | 5Y | $238.19 | 1.7 | 138.57 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $198.61 | 6.8 | 29.31 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $63.84 | 11.1 | 5.73 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $38.77 | 1.4 | 27.15 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $66.92 | 9.1 | 7.33 | Analyst | high |