Arch Capital Group (ACGL)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
$110.68+2.68%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ACGL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -30.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -13.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ACGL — credit agreement
Dated 2026-10-30
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 28, 2026, Arch Reinsurance Ltd. (“ArchRe”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Arch Capital Group Ltd. (“Arch”), entered into Amendment No. 6 to Letter of Credit Facility Agreement (“Amendment No. 6”), as the borrower with Lloyds Bank Corporate Markets plc (“Lloyds”), as Administrative Agent and L/C Agent, which amends the Letter of Credit Facility Agreement, dated as of November 3, 2020, as amended by Amendment No. 1 to Letter of Credit Facili…
Why it matters: Reinsurance gross premiums fell 8.0% in Q3. Management said non-renewals and lower shares cut premiums.
Supportive ifQ4 reinsurance gross premiums are at least equal to the year-earlier quarter.
Worry ifQ4 reinsurance gross premiums fall more than 8.0% year over year.
Why it matters: Arch repurchased $1.4 billion of shares in Q3, up from $732 million a year earlier. The next report will show if this pace continues.
Watch forArch reports at least $1.0 billion of share repurchases in the next quarter.
Also watch forArch reports less than $500 million of share repurchases in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$82 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $202 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,408 loss on $10,000 · 14.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.