Arch Capital Group (ACGL)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
$98.10-1.73%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ACGL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -41.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -10.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers
ACGL — CEO transition
Dated 2026-06-03
President — David Gansberg: David Gansberg is departing the Company and stepping down as President.
Why it matters: The new leader may change the company's plans and how well it performs.
Watch forEmployees and analysts give good feedback about the new leader, Maamoun Rajeh.
Also watch forThere are bad reports or lower employee satisfaction after the leadership change.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can impact company strategy. This can affect performance in the short term.
Watch forQ3 results show better performance after the CEO change.
Also watch forQ3 results show a decline in performance post-CEO transition.
Why it matters: A higher combined ratio shows worse underwriting performance. This may mean trouble with costs and claims.
Worry ifThe Q3 combined ratio is over 83%. This shows a drop in underwriting efficiency.
Less concerning ifThe Q3 combined ratio is below 82.5%. This shows better underwriting performance.
Why it matters: More buybacks can show that management is confident. This can help the share price.
Supportive ifThere is news of more share repurchases beyond the current $3.1 billion.
Worry ifNo new announcements or a cut in the repurchase amount.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$79 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $210 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,408 loss on $10,000 · 14.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A big drop shows worse underwriting performance. This affects overall profit.
Worry ifQ3 underwriting income drops more than 15% compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifUnderwriting income stays stable or grows from Q3 2025.
Why it matters: High debt issuance may mean more leverage and financial risk. This can affect credit ratings.
Worry ifDebt issuance exceeds $2 billion in Q3.
Less concerning ifDebt issuance is under $2 billion in Q3. This suggests more careful financial management.
Why it matters: A big drop in net premiums written can show weak demand or competition.
Worry ifQ3 net premiums written decline more than 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net premiums written increase or decline less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in underwriting income growth show how well the company is doing.
Watch forUnderwriting income grows year over year by more than 10%.
Also watch forUnderwriting income declines or grows less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A new CEO could shift company strategy and impact investor sentiment. It is crucial to understand the new direction.
Watch forA new CEO is announced. This brings new leadership and possible changes.
Also watch forNo new CEO is announced. The interim leadership stays the same, showing stability.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can change company plans and affect how investors feel.
Watch forMaamoun Rajeh uses new strategies. These help to increase underwriting income.
Also watch forChanges in leadership can cause problems. They may lead to drops in performance.
Why it matters: More share repurchases can show confidence in the company's value. This can help shareholders.
Supportive ifShare repurchases over $1 billion were announced in Q3.
Worry ifNo share buyback was announced in Q3. The buyback plan also went down.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show strong money management. They also show trust in the company's worth.
Supportive ifArch Capital says it bought back over $500 million in shares in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo share buybacks or a cut in buyback plans in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Rising underwriting income shows good management. This can help build investor trust.
Supportive ifUnderwriting income in Q2 2026 is over $700 million.
Worry ifUnderwriting income for Q2 2026 falls below $600 million.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change company plans and results. This can affect how investors feel.
Watch forArch Capital shows better financial results in Q3 2026 with new leaders.
Also watch forArch Capital shows worse financial results in Q3 2026 with new leaders.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change company direction and how investors feel. It is important to see how the new president carries out plans.
Watch forMaamoun Rajeh outlines a clear strategy that aligns with Arch's growth goals.
Also watch forRajeh does not give a clear strategy or has trouble with execution.