Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Arch Capital Group (ACGL)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
$110.57-0.10%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
9.79 → 9.95 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ACGL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain preferred share dividends at current levels | A supporting condition in Arch Capital Group's published investment case. The stated target is stable preferred dividends. | Intact | preferred dividends are cut or suspended | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ACGL is a diversified insurance and reinsurance business with a long-term thesis tied to disciplined underwriting and capital management. The thesis is intact, and recent financial performance remains in the top half of its industry, but management execution and segment trends are mixed.
The valuation evidence describes ACGL as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. The model has low confidence, and the priced-in assessment is justified with low fragility, so the valuation signal is not decisive.
Near term, the recent earnings beat lifted company momentum, but underwriting income fell year over year and the combined ratio excluding catastrophe activity and prior-year development worsened slightly. Insurance premiums grew while reinsurance premiums declined, and a recent litigation filing adds uncertainty; repurchases were higher than a year earlier.
The multi-year view depends on whether disciplined underwriting can support results as segment trends vary. Near term, a guidance cut or falling interest rates would be unfavorable, while continued strong earnings and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ACGL’s thesis remains intact, but weaker year-over-year underwriting results and mixed execution make continued performance worth monitoring. The valuation appears cheap versus peers, though the evidence is low confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Arch Capital Group's published investment case. The stated target is >=798 million USD per quarter. |
| Intact |
| quarterly share repurchases fall below 500 million USD |
Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Underwriting income grows to at least $728 million by 2026-Q1 | Arch Capital grows underwriting income strongly, from $417M in 2025-Q1 to $728M in 2026-Q1. | Improving | underwriting income falls below 600 million USD next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$9.81 → $9.95 · observed estimates
$16.49B → $16.30B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $9.81 | $16,492,124,000 | 20 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $9.81 | $16,492,124,000 | 20 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $9.81 | $16,492,124,000 | 20 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $9.83 | $17,394,354,742 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $9.81 | $16,492,124,000 | 20 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $9.81 | $16,492,124,000 | 20 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $9.81 | $16,492,124,000 | 20 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $9.78 | $16,148,726,330 | 20 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $9.78 | $16,148,726,330 | 20 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $9.77 | $16,004,393,000 | 20 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $9.81 | $17,011,847,260 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $9.77 | $16,004,393,000 | 20 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $9.76 | $15,858,943,000 | 20 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $9.76 | $15,858,943,000 | 20 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $9.76 | $15,858,943,000 | 20 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $9.79 | $16,803,543,589 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $9.76 | $15,858,943,000 | 20 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $9.76 | $15,858,943,000 | 20 / 6 |
| 2026-08-11 | $9.79 | $16,803,543,589 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $9.79 | $16,803,543,589 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $9.75 | $15,955,756,710 | 20 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $9.79 | $16,803,543,589 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $9.79 | $16,803,543,589 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $9.79 | $16,803,543,589 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $9.79 | $16,803,543,589 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $9.79 | $16,803,543,589 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $9.79 | $16,803,543,589 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $9.79 | $16,803,543,589 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $9.79 | $16,723,068,683 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $9.79 | $16,723,068,683 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $9.79 | $16,723,068,683 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $9.79 | $16,723,068,683 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $9.79 | $16,723,068,683 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $9.79 | $16,723,068,683 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $9.79 | $16,723,068,683 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $9.79 | $16,723,068,683 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $9.78 | $16,723,068,683 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $9.78 | $16,723,068,683 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $9.78 | $16,723,068,683 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $9.78 | $16,723,068,683 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $9.78 | $16,723,068,683 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $9.78 | $16,723,068,683 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $9.78 | $16,723,068,683 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $9.78 | $16,723,068,683 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $9.78 | $16,723,068,683 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $9.78 | $16,723,068,683 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $9.78 | $16,723,068,683 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $9.78 | $16,723,068,683 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $9.78 | $16,723,068,683 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $9.78 | $16,723,068,683 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $9.78 | $16,723,068,683 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $9.78 | $16,723,068,683 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $9.78 | $16,723,068,683 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $9.78 | $16,723,068,683 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $9.78 | $16,723,068,683 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $9.78 | $16,723,068,683 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $9.78 | $16,723,068,683 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $9.78 | $16,723,068,683 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $9.78 | $16,644,294,169 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $9.78 | $16,644,294,169 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $9.78 | $16,644,294,169 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $9.78 | $16,644,294,169 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $9.78 | $16,644,294,169 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $9.78 | $16,644,294,169 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $9.78 | $16,644,294,169 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $9.78 | $16,644,294,169 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $9.78 | $16,644,294,169 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $9.78 | $16,644,294,169 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $9.78 | $16,644,294,169 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $9.78 | $16,644,294,169 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $9.79 | $16,645,551,938 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $9.79 | $16,645,551,938 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $9.79 | $16,645,551,938 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $9.79 | $16,645,551,938 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $9.78 | $16,628,131,017 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $9.77 | $16,540,888,674 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.78 | $16,540,888,674 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.78 | $16,540,888,674 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.78 | $16,540,888,674 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.79 | $16,526,563,795 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.79 | $16,526,563,795 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.80 | $16,526,563,795 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.81 | $16,526,966,181 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.81 | $16,308,188,362 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.81 | $16,308,188,362 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.81 | $16,308,188,362 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.81 | $16,308,188,362 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.81 | $16,308,188,362 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.81 | $16,308,188,362 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.81 | $16,308,188,362 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.81 | $16,308,188,362 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.81 | $16,308,188,362 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.81 | $16,307,757,090 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.81 | $16,307,757,090 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.81 | $16,307,757,090 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.81 | $16,307,757,090 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.83 | $16,309,173,757 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.88 | $16,311,303,555 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.89 | $16,311,303,552 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.92 | $16,313,303,552 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.92 | $16,291,786,886 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.92 | $16,291,786,886 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.93 | $16,316,179,522 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.95 | $16,298,671,243 | 12 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 12 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.