Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Archer Aviation, Inc. (ACHR)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.87-6.07%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ACHR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA loss narrows toward break-even by end of 2026 | Archer aims to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA by 2026, targeting a loss no worse than $170 million in Q2. | Under Pressure | Adjusted EBITDA loss worsens beyond -$200 million in 2026-Q2 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative growth: the business is pursuing electric aircraft operations and related technology, while current results are loss-making. The thesis is in a watch state, with mixed progress on key management priorities and a higher risk label.
The evidence snapshot provides no valuation level or specific market expectations, so whether ACHR is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. It reports low fragility, but that does not establish what expectations the market already assumes.
Near term, financial performance is weak, the latest quarter was missed, and results have lagged the industry cohort. Management reports progress on FAA certification and planned 2026 US operations, while the acquisition-related priority has mixed status; financial measures tied to these goals are not provided.
Over the next several quarters, the thesis hinges on continued FAA certification progress, the planned start of US eVTOL operations, and delivery on the acquisition priorities. Guidance cuts would be a negative signal, while results and guidance from sector bellwethers could affect the broader Industrials backdrop.
For a 1-3 year view, ACHR remains a high-risk, loss-making development story with meaningful execution questions and limited financial evidence of progress. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company is advancing FAA certification, moving closer to commercial launch. |
| Improving |
| FAA certification delays beyond 2026 |
Qualitative: First city-to-city flight completed (Sep 2026); no FAA delay reported Midnight completed first city-to-city roundtrip flight in September 2026, supporting FAA certification milestones for US operations. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Strengthen financial position through capital allocation | A supporting condition in Archer Aviation, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain sufficient capital and manage debt to support operations in 2026. | Under Pressure | Capital depletion or inability to fund operations in 2026 | Qualitative: $6.9M revenue vs >$200M acquisition cost; no cash metrics reported ACHR acquired Boeing's Wisk Aero (> $200M) with only $6.9M revenue. No new capital raised to fund operations. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Expand eVTOL production capacity to meet demand | Production capacity expansion supports future demand. | Improving | No meaningful capacity expansion by end of 2026 | Qualitative: Capacity expansion advancing via Wisk acquisition & certification ACHR completed Wisk acquisition and achieved first city-to-city flight, reinforcing capacity and operational expansion goals. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.22 → $-1.20 · observed estimates
$0.09B → $0.08B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.22 | $85,849,249 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.22 | $85,849,249 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.22 | $85,849,249 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.93 | $85,853,250 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.93 | $85,853,250 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.93 | $85,853,250 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.93 | $85,853,250 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.93 | $85,853,250 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.93 | $85,853,250 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.93 | $85,853,250 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.93 | $85,853,250 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.93 | $85,853,250 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.93 | $85,853,250 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.93 | $85,853,250 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.93 | $85,853,250 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.93 | $85,853,250 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.93 | $85,853,250 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.93 | $85,853,250 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-1.22 | $85,858,311 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.81 | $95,947,290 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.81 | $95,947,290 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.22 | $85,858,311 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.22 | $85,858,311 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.22 | $85,858,311 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.22 | $85,858,311 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.22 | $85,858,311 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.22 | $85,858,311 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.20 | $87,021,833 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.20 | $80,355,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.20 | $80,355,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.20 | $80,355,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.20 | $80,355,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.20 | $80,355,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.20 | $80,355,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.20 | $80,355,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.20 | $80,355,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.20 | $80,355,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.20 | $80,355,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.20 | $80,355,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.20 | $80,355,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.20 | $80,355,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.20 | $80,355,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.20 | $80,355,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.20 | $80,355,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.20 | $80,355,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.20 | $80,355,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.20 | $80,355,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.20 | $80,355,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.20 | $80,355,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.20 | $80,355,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.20 | $80,355,167 | 4 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.