Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Achieve Life Sciences Inc (ACHV)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.38-8.67%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ACHV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Stabilize executive leadership after recent departures | A supporting condition in Achieve Life Sciences Inc's published investment case. The stated target is No further key executive departures in next 4 quarters. | Under Pressure | Any additional departure of C-suite or President within next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative development-stage investment, not an established earnings compounder. Its thesis is on watch: recent financial performance is weak versus its industry cohort, though it has not freshly broken.
The evidence does not provide a valuation level or specific market expectations, so whether the shares are cheap or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. No fragility gates fired, but that does not resolve the uncertainty around a loss-making business with elevated risk.
Near term, losses may remain substantial as ACHV invests in development and commercialization; they rose from $10.2 million in the first quarter of 2026 to $74.8 million in the second. Funding for the Phase 3 trial and commercialization is in place, while the U.S. manufacturing transition has reached early steps, including a completed technology transfer and first engineering batch. The next results remain a risk to watch after an earnings miss, and a CFO transition was announced in October.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on advancing the Phase 3 trial and commercialization while managing losses and completing the manufacturing transition. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; stronger results and guidance from healthcare sector leaders could support a more favorable sector backdrop, though that is not specific proof of ACHV’s execution.
Over a one-to-three-year view, ACHV has funding and early manufacturing progress, but rising losses, weak recent performance, and execution uncertainty keep the thesis fragile. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Improve EPS towards -1.25 USD per share or better |
| The company beat Q1 2026 EPS expectations, showing progress managing losses. |
| Improving |
| EPS falls below -1.25 USD per share in 2026-Q4 |
Diluted EPS: $-0.80 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=-1.25 USD_PER_SHARE. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 11, 2026-0.8 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Secure private placement funding of up to $354 million | Achieve Life Sciences aims to raise $354 million through private placement. | Intact | gross proceeds fall below $180 million by 2026-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 1 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Key Highlights: Capital Raise • Closed a private placement of up to $354 million, including $180 million upfront and up to $174 million from milestone-based warrants that may be exercised at any time prior to, and up to 20 trading days following, FDA approval of cytisinicline.” “Financial Results As of March 31, 2026, the Company’s cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities were $29.3 million, not including estimated net proceeds of approximately $168.6 million from the private placement, after deducting estimated agent fees and other expenses.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.49 → $-0.68 · observed estimates
$0.04B → $0.04B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.49 | $36,881,500 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.49 | $36,881,500 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.49 | $36,881,500 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.49 | $36,881,500 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.49 | $36,881,500 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.49 | $36,881,500 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.49 | $36,881,500 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.49 | $36,881,500 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.49 | $36,881,500 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.49 | $36,881,500 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.49 | $36,881,500 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.49 | $36,881,500 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.49 | $36,881,500 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.49 | $35,619,550 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.49 | $35,619,550 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.49 | $35,619,550 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.60 | $35,619,550 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.60 | $35,619,550 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.60 | $35,619,550 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.60 | $35,619,550 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.69 | $35,619,550 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.58 | $39,181,530 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.58 | $39,181,530 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.58 | $39,181,530 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.58 | $39,181,530 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.58 | $39,181,530 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.58 | $39,181,530 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.58 | $39,181,530 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.66 | $35,227,478 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.68 | $35,424,980 | 9 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.