Albertsons (ACI)
NYSEConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
$12.55-0.32%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ACI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -29.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -4.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers
ACI — CFO transition
Dated 2026-07-23
President and Chief Financial Officer — Sharon McCollam: Sharon McCollam is retiring and will be in an advisory capacity until the end of the fiscal year.
Why it matters: New leadership could change the company's strategy and how it manages money.
Watch forA new CFO has been announced. They have strong skills and experience.
Also watch forThere is a delay in naming a successor or a less skilled candidate.
Why it matters: More loyalty members can lead to higher sales. It shows customer retention and engagement.
Supportive ifLoyalty members grow more than 10% year over year.
Worry ifLoyalty members grow less than 10% year over year.
Why it matters: The outcome of this settlement could impact financials and public perception. It is a significant legal matter for the company.
Worry ifGood news on the Opioid Settlement Framework lowers financial risks.
Less concerning ifBad news or higher risks linked to the Opioid Settlement Framework.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows careful spending, which helps growth plans.
Supportive ifCapital spending was between $1.9B and $2.0B.
Worry ifCapital spending is over $2.0B.
Why it matters: Timely payments are important for managing debts. Delays can hurt cash flow.
Supportive ifPayments for the Opioid Settlement Framework start on time.
Worry ifPayments for the Opioid Settlement Framework are delayed.
Why it matters: A strong new leader could help stabilize management and support goals.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new CFO who aligns with strategic goals.
Worry ifDelay in naming a new CFO or appointment of a less experienced candidate.
Why it matters: High capital spending may signal aggressive growth plans but could strain cash flow. It’s crucial to monitor spending discipline.
Worry ifSpending is over $2.2 billion in fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifSpending stays under $2.0 billion in fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Lower EBITDA may show problems in operations. This can hurt investor trust.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is less than $3.85 billion for fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA is more than $3.925 billion for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating earnings guidance can boost investor trust and stock performance.
Supportive ifAdjusted net income per share reported within or above the range of $2.22 to $2.32.
Worry ifAdjusted net income per share reported below $2.22.
Why it matters: High capital spending can signal aggressive growth plans. It may affect cash flow and debt levels.
Worry ifCapital spending is over $2.2 billion for fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifCapital spending is under $2.0 billion for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Same sales growth is key for revenue. A drop shows bigger problems.
Worry ifSame sales growth is below 0.0% in fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifIdentical sales growth at or above 0.0% in fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: A drop worse than this shows bigger problems in grocery sales due to competition.
Worry ifIdentical sales decline worse than -1.5% in Q2 results.
Less concerning ifIdentical sales decline less than -0.5% or show growth.
Why it matters: Growth in digital sales shows good changes in how people shop.
Supportive ifDigital sales growth stays above 10% in the next quarters.
Worry ifDigital sales growth falls below 10% in upcoming quarters.
Why it matters: A new CFO could signal a shift in financial strategy or priorities that impacts performance.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new CFO with a strong background in retail or transformation.
Also watch forNo announcement of a new CFO by the end of the fiscal year.
Why it matters: Doing ACI Edge well is key for better sales and staying competitive.
Watch forManagement says ACI Edge is making good progress and helping sales.
Also watch forManagement says there are delays in ACI Edge that hurt sales.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$137 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $305 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,318 loss on $10,000 · 43.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.