Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
American Coastal Insurance Corp. (ACIC)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.27-3.52%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.28 → 1.25 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ACIC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS at least $2.15 in 2025 | A primary condition in American Coastal Insurance Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=2.15 USD per share. | Broken | EPS falls below $2.15 in FY25 | Diluted EPS: $0.44 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2.15 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20260.44 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a specialty-insurance business with a profitability-focused, selective-growth thesis, rather than a clear turnaround or broad growth story. The multi-year view is on watch: the latest earnings improved the signal, but recent performance has remained below its industry cohort.
ACIC is cheap versus peers, and the evidence labels its valuation expectations as justified, with low fragility. That suggests the market is not relying on especially stretched assumptions, though the evidence does not specify which future results are already expected.
Near term, the latest earnings beat and improved company momentum are positive, while the prior miss and smaller-company reporting risk still matter. Management has kept the underlying combined ratio broadly stable and advanced its E&S property platform and AmRisc partnership, but revenue declined from the second to the third quarter, so growth delivery remains mixed.
The next guidance update is a key swing factor: a cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued execution on underwriting profitability and the E&S platform would support the multi-year thesis. The evidence also points to interest rates and sector earnings as external factors, with Financials generally favored by rates staying high and sector momentum helped if CB, PGR, and TRV continue to report strong results and raise guidance.
Over the next one to three years, ACIC’s thesis rests on turning strong underwriting and named platform milestones into steadier growth, while managing elevated risk and uneven recent results. The latest earnings are encouraging, but the evidence supports continued monitoring rather than a settled thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company aims for revenue near $350 million and other income around $92.5 million in 2026. |
| Intact |
| Other income falls below $85 million in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue near $350 million in 2026 | The company aims for revenue near $350 million and other income around $92.5 million in 2026. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $335 million in FY26 | Revenue: $82.597M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~350 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202682,597,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.01 → $1.25 · observed estimates
$0.33B → $0.50B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.01 | $326,248,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.01 | $326,248,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.01 | $326,248,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.01 | $326,248,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.01 | $326,248,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.01 | $326,248,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.01 | $326,248,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.01 | $326,248,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.01 | $326,248,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.01 | $326,248,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.01 | $326,248,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.01 | $326,248,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.01 | $326,248,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.01 | $326,248,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.01 | $326,248,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.01 | $326,248,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.01 | $326,248,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.01 | $326,248,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.01 | $326,248,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.06 | $326,248,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.06 | $326,248,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.01 | $503,271,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.01 | $503,271,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.01 | $503,271,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.01 | $503,271,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.01 | $503,271,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.01 | $503,271,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.09 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.28 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.25 | $496,134,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.