American Coastal Insurance Corp. (ACIC)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.27-3.52%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ACIC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -30.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 42.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 72.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 25 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ACIC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-29
and 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference to such filing.
Why it matters: The COO and CIO left without a named successor in the event summary. A replacement would show who now leads these roles.
Watch forA company filing names a successor for both the COO and CIO roles.
Also watch forA later filing still lists no successor. Or it says another senior operations or technology leader has left.
Why it matters: The stated goal gives a clear test of revenue progress. Nine-month revenue was $224.5 million, so the fourth quarter matters.
Watch forThe 2026 annual report shows total revenue of at least $335 million.
Also watch forThe 2026 annual report shows total revenue below $335 million.
Why it matters: The AmRisc deal adds premium outside ACIC’s core markets. More reported premium would show that this partnership is adding business.
Supportive ifA later quarterly release reports AmRisc premium above $37.3 million for the year to date.
Worry ifA later quarterly release reports AmRisc premium at or below $37.3 million year to date, or says the deal has ended.
Why it matters: Net pricing fell 25.6% in Q3, while written premiums grew 3.2%. More price cuts with weak growth could pressure future earnings.
Worry ifA later quarterly release reports net pricing down more than 25% year over year. It reports gross premiums written growth of 3.2% or less.
Less concerning ifA later quarterly release reports net pricing down less than 25% year over year. It reports gross premiums written growth above 3.2%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$109 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $334 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,620 loss on $10,000 · 26.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.