American Coastal Insurance Corp. (ACIC)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.540.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ACIC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -39.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 35.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 75.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ACIC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
and 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference to such filing.
Why it matters: Lowering EBIT guidance shows a bad outlook on profits and growth.
Worry ifThe company cuts EBIT guidance to less than $85 million.
Less concerning ifCompany keeps or raises EBIT guidance above $85 million.
Why it matters: This earnings report will provide key insights into revenue, EPS, and EBIT progress.
Watch forEarnings report shows positive results for revenue, EPS, and EBIT.
Also watch forEarnings report shows negative results for revenue, EPS, and EBIT.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could affect investor confidence in American Coastal Insurance.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth stays at or above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Improved pricing could help stabilize revenue and support future growth.
Watch forManagement says pricing trends will improve in the next earnings calls.
Also watch forManagement reports that net pricing is down compared to last year.
Why it matters: This shows a recovery in premium growth. It also shows a response to market changes.
Supportive ifGross premiums written reported at or above $220M for Q3.
Worry ifGross premiums written reported below $200M for Q3.
Why it matters: This report will provide key updates on revenue, EPS, and EBIT against guidance.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue and EPS growth, confirming positive trends.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows drops in revenue or EPS. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: A continued drop may mean worse market conditions and lower revenue.
Worry ifGross premiums written decline more than 5% in Q3 compared to Q2.
Less concerning ifGross premiums written stabilize or grow in Q3 compared to Q2.
Why it matters: This would show progress toward the EBIT guidance of $85M-$100M for 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 EBIT reported at or above $28M.
Worry ifQ3 EBIT falls below $25M.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would show progress toward the full-year revenue guidance of $335M-$365M.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenue reported at or above $82M.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue falls below $71M.
Why it matters: Achieving this would indicate strong progress toward the 2026 EPS target of $2.15.
Supportive ifQ3 diluted EPS reported at or above $0.72.
Worry ifQ3 diluted EPS falls below $0.67.
Why it matters: A lower combined ratio means better underwriting. It also means more profit.
Supportive ifCombined ratio was below 68% for Q3.
Worry ifCombined ratio was above 70% for Q3.
Why it matters: How the market reacts to this miss shows how investors feel and what they expect.
Worry ifStock price falls a lot after the earnings miss news.
Less concerning ifStock price stays the same or goes up after the announcement.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$117 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $336 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,506 loss on $10,000 · 25.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.