AECOM (ACM)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$66.58-0.37%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — EPS near $6.0 in FY26: EPS guidance $4.05 vs $6.0 target.
AECOM is winning new contracts that support steady revenue growth. The company raised its EPS guidance to about $6.0 for FY26. Net income rose from $143M to $180M year over year. Free cash flow is expected to be at least $400M next quarter.
Revenue growth is slow and operating income declined recently. The company is under market pressure with a 22% drawdown. Management is behind on revenue growth and mixed on operating income. Rising debt and soft guidance pose risks.
The stock trades about 38% below our fair value near $109. Analysts expect about 7% revenue growth. The market prices in moderate growth but also reflects elevated risk and recent softness.
Breaks if: EPS guidance falls below $5.9 for FY26
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $400M next quarter
Breaks if: Operating income declines further below $247M
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a cyclical play in the Industrials sector. The current thesis state is weakened, as recent financial performance has dropped significantly compared to peers, indicating potential challenges ahead.
The market seems to be pricing in a low level of execution quality, with ACM appearing cheap compared to its peers. However, there is a slight expectations gap, suggesting that investors may not fully account for potential risks in the near term.
Management is focused on increasing revenue growth, enhancing operating income, and boosting net income, with recent results showing progress in these areas. However, there is an elevated risk of missing earnings expectations, which could further impact sentiment.
The long-term thesis hinges on whether ACM can maintain its backlog growth and improve margins while navigating sector headwinds. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers like PWR, FIX, and EME will be critical in determining ACM's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry. This change indicates a weaker reason to own the stock. The company recorded a $337 million pretax charge due to project delays. This charge impacts profitability expectations for the quarter. Analysts raised their earnings estimate for the current quarter from $1.56 to $1.60 per share.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ACM faces challenges that could affect its performance, particularly if sector dynamics shift negatively. Not investment advice.