Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$7.29 → $6.97 · observed estimates
AECOM (ACM)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$66.72-2.17%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.29 → 6.97 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ACM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS near $6.0 in FY26 | A primary condition in AECOM's published investment case. The stated target is EPS ~6.0 USD per share. | Broken | EPS guidance falls below $5.9 for FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “· In addition, the Company reaffirmed its long-term financial targets, which includes its expectation to deliver a 20%+ margin exit rate by fiscal 2028 and to grow adjusted 2 EPS at a 15%+ CAGR from fiscal 2026 to fiscal 2029.” “· In addition, the Company reiterated its long-term financial targets, which includes its expectation to deliver a 20%+ margin exit rate by fiscal 2028 and to grow adjusted 1 EPS at a 15%+ CAGR from fiscal 2026 to fiscal 2029.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$7.29 → $6.97 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 16, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an execution-dependent industrials business, with a multi-year view supported by backlog growth and a focus on revenue and earnings. The thesis is in a watch state: recent performance has lagged its industry cohort, though it has not freshly broken.
The valuation signal is mixed: ACM is marked as cheap versus peers, but also as stretched, with a 44% premium versus peers and a modest expectations gap. Confidence in this reading is medium, and the evidence does not show that the market has fully priced in the execution risks.
Near term, the recent earnings miss, erratic surprises, and $337 million project charge weigh on results; fiscal 2026 EPS guidance was reduced to $3.95 to $4.15. Against that, backlog reached a record, growing from 8% to 13%, and segment adjusted margins were 16.5% excluding the charge; management’s focus on growth is on track while margin progress is mixed.
The next earnings call is a key near-term test: another guidance cut could signal weaker execution, while continued backlog growth would support the multi-year case. Sector signals also matter: continued strong results from PWR, FIX, and EME may sustain industrial momentum, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ACM’s thesis depends on converting its record backlog into revenue and earnings while containing project-related costs. Elevated risk, sector headwinds, and the latest miss leave execution as the central uncertainty. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Free cash flow at least $400M next quarter | Free cash flow is expected to be at least $400M next quarter. | Broken | Free cash flow falls below $400M next quarter | Free cash flow: $54.885M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: FCF >= $400M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 202654,885,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income stabilizes or improves | A supporting condition in AECOM's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income stabilizes or grows from $247.76M. | Broken | Operating income declines further below $247M | Operating income: $-75.98M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income stabilizes or grows from $247.76M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 11, 2026-75,980,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at or above 7% annually | A primary condition in AECOM's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year | Revenue growth: -14.18% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 11, 2026-14.176894 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$8.43B → $8.47B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $7.29 | $8,427,703,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.29 | $8,427,703,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.29 | $8,427,703,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.29 | $8,427,703,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.29 | $8,427,703,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.29 | $8,427,703,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.29 | $8,411,703,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.29 | $8,411,703,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.29 | $8,411,703,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.29 | $8,411,703,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.29 | $8,411,703,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.29 | $8,411,703,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.29 | $8,411,703,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.29 | $8,411,703,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.29 | $8,411,703,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.29 | $8,467,602,333 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.29 | $8,467,602,333 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.29 | $8,467,602,333 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.29 | $8,467,602,333 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.29 | $8,467,602,333 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.29 | $8,467,602,333 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.29 | $8,467,602,333 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.29 | $8,467,602,333 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.97 | $8,467,602,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.97 | $8,467,602,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.97 | $8,467,602,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.97 | $8,467,602,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.97 | $8,467,602,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.97 | $8,467,602,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.97 | $8,467,602,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.97 | $8,467,602,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.97 | $8,467,602,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.97 | $8,467,602,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.97 | $8,467,602,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.97 | $8,467,602,333 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.