AECOM (ACM)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$66.72-2.17%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ACM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -26.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers
ACM — dividend update
Dated 2026-09-17
Other Events. On September 17, 2026, AECOM announced that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.31 per share as part of the Company’s ongoing quarterly dividend program. The dividend is payable on October 30, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on October 14, 2026. The declaration and payment of future dividends are subject to the sole discretion of the Board of Directors. The press release announcing the declaration of a cash dividend is a…
Why it matters: Backlog rose 13% with a 1.6 book-to-burn ratio. More growth would support future work, while a sharp slowdown would weaken that signal.
Supportive ifIn the next results, backlog is higher year over year and the book-to-burn ratio is at least 1.0.
Worry ifBacklog falls year over year or the book-to-burn ratio drops below 1.0.
Why it matters: Design work grew even as reported revenue fell after the project charge. Continued growth would show strength outside that project.
Supportive ifNet service revenue in the design business grows year over year in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifNet service revenue in the design business falls year over year in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: AECOM cut its full-year cash flow view after a project charge. The next report tests whether it meets its new targets.
Watch forQ4 results keep fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS at $3.95–$4.15, net service revenue at $7.30–$7.35 billion, and free cash flow near $300 million.
Also watch forAECOM cuts any of those fiscal 2026 targets again or reports results below its stated range.
Why it matters: AECOM cut its fiscal 2026 free cash flow view to about $300 million. A later recovery would support its cash flow goal.
Watch forAECOM reports free cash flow conversion at or above 100% after the project headwinds subside.
Also watch forFree cash flow conversion stays below 100% after the project headwinds subside, or AECOM cuts its cash flow view again.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$126 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $329 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,634 loss on $10,000 · 56.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The project drove a $337 million pre-tax charge and cut cash flow guidance. On-time completion would limit further cost risk.
Worry ifAECOM reports the project will be nearly complete by the end of Q2 FY2027. It expects no added project charge or further cut to cash flow guidance.
Less concerning ifCompletion slips past Q2 FY2027, or AECOM reports another rise in the cost to finish the project.