AECOM (ACM)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$66.58-0.37%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ACM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -39.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -45.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ACM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 10, 2026, AECOM issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached to this report as Exhibit 99.1. Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. AECOM reports…
Why it matters: Growing backlog means strong future revenue and market trust.
Supportive ifBacklog growth is above 10%. This shows strong project wins.
Worry ifBacklog growth is below 10%. This suggests demand is weakening.
Why it matters: A drop in operating income might show bigger problems with cost management.
Worry ifOperating income declines more than 5% in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifOperating income goes up or stays the same in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if AECOM can maintain its growth momentum. Investors will look for signs of continued revenue and net income growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS for Q3 is over $1.45. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS for Q3 is under $1.40. This suggests weaker performance.
Why it matters: Another raise would show strong momentum and confidence in revenue growth.
Supportive ifManagement raises the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to more than $6.10.
Worry ifManagement keeps the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance at $6.10 or less.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$118 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $307 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,426 loss on $10,000 · 54.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Completion will end the financial impact from the $337 million charge. It also shows if AECOM can manage project risks better.
Supportive ifThe project achieves substantial completion by the end of Q2 fiscal 2027.
Worry ifMore delays in finishing the project go beyond the planned timeline.
Why it matters: A rise in net income shows better profits and efficiency. This helps investors feel secure.
Supportive ifNet income exceeds $200 million in the next quarterly report.
Worry ifNet income remains below $200 million in the next quarterly report.
Why it matters: A slowdown in backlog growth could signal weakening demand and impact future revenue.
Worry ifTotal backlog growth drops below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifTotal backlog growth remains above 8% year over year.
Why it matters: A big drop in revenue shows problems with finishing projects and market demand.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was below $3.1 billion. This is a decline of more than 14%.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue stays the same or grows year over year. This shows recovery.
Why it matters: Keeping EPS guidance shows confidence in earnings despite recent losses.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS guidance remains within the range of $3.95 to $4.15.
Worry ifEPS guidance is lowered to below $3.95. This shows a worse profit outlook.
Why it matters: Strong backlog growth signals demand strength and supports revenue growth expectations.
Supportive ifBacklog growth of 13% or more in Q3 compared to the previous year.
Worry ifBacklog growth falls below 10% in Q3 compared to the previous year.
Why it matters: More net income shows good cost control and efficient operations.
Supportive ifNet income in Q3 exceeds $140 million.
Worry ifNet income in Q3 is below $120 million.
Why it matters: Higher adjusted EPS shows strong earnings growth and good cost control.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS in Q3 exceeds $1.42.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS in Q3 falls below $1.30.
Why it matters: Stable free cash flow guidance shows financial health and ability to invest in growth.
Watch forFree cash flow guidance remains around $300 million.
Also watch forFree cash flow guidance drops below $250 million.