Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp. (ACRE)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.40-3.13%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.40 → 0.37 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ACRE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve cash from operations from negative levels | The company aims to fix its negative cash flow and volatile net income. | Broken | cash from operations remains negative over next 4 quarters | Cash from operations: $63.546M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: > 0 USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 4, 202663,546,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical, higher-risk lender rather than a steady compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: recent performance is weak versus its industry group, and the risk rating has risen to elevated.
ACRE is described as cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, meaning expectations appear more cautious than the valuation model’s baseline. Pricing fragility is rated low, but model confidence is medium, so the valuation signal is not conclusive.
Near term, results may remain uneven: earnings quality is loss-making, recent performance is weak, and the estimated chance of missing the next print is elevated enough to warrant attention. Management has maintained the stated quarterly dividend and reported new loan commitments, while progress on repositioning the portfolio and resolving higher-risk loans remains mixed.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether ACRE continues resolving its higher-risk loans, generates new commitments, and avoids a guidance cut. Fed rate cuts could support rate-sensitive real estate names, while weaker results or guidance from sector peers could remove that support.
The 1-to-3-year view rests on mixed execution: the peer discount and ongoing lending activity are positives, but weak performance, loss-making earnings quality, and elevated risk keep the thesis cautious. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Ares Commercial Real Estate keeps paying a $0.15 quarterly dividend. |
| Intact |
| dividend falls below $0.15 per share quarterly |
Dividend per share: $0.15 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.15 per share quarterly. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 3, 20260.15 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “On August 4, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company declared a regular cash dividend of $0.15 per common share for the third quarter of 2026.” “On May 7, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company declared a regular cash dividend of $0.15 per common share for the second quarter of 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Reduce net income volatility and losses | The company aims to fix its negative cash flow and volatile net income. | Improving | net income remains negative or volatile over next 4 quarters | Net income: $4.383M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income >= 0 USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 3, 20264,383,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.36 → $0.37 · observed estimates
$0.05B → $0.06B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.36 | $53,252,705 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.53 | $57,270,810 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.53 | $57,270,810 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.53 | $57,270,810 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.36 | $53,252,705 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.53 | $57,270,810 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.53 | $57,270,810 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.46 | $57,270,810 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.46 | $57,270,810 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.46 | $57,270,810 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.46 | $57,270,810 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.46 | $57,270,810 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.46 | $57,270,810 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.46 | $57,270,810 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.33 | $54,670,809 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.54 | $54,653,290 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.54 | $54,653,290 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.54 | $54,653,290 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.34 | $59,088,510 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.34 | $59,088,510 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.34 | $59,088,510 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.33 | $54,670,809 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.33 | $54,670,809 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.33 | $54,670,809 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.33 | $54,670,809 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.33 | $54,670,809 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.33 | $54,670,809 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.33 | $54,670,809 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.33 | $54,670,809 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.33 | $54,670,809 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.33 | $54,670,809 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.33 | $54,670,809 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.33 | $54,670,809 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.33 | $54,670,809 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.33 | $54,670,809 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.33 | $54,670,809 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.33 | $54,670,809 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.33 | $54,670,809 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.33 | $54,670,809 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.33 | $54,670,809 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.33 | $54,670,809 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.33 | $54,670,809 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.33 | $54,670,809 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.33 | $54,670,809 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.33 | $54,670,809 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.33 | $54,670,809 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.33 | $54,670,809 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.33 | $54,670,809 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.33 | $54,670,809 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.33 | $54,670,809 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.40 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.40 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.40 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.40 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.40 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.40 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.40 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.40 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.40 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.40 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.40 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.40 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.40 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.40 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.40 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.40 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.40 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.40 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.40 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.40 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.40 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.40 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.40 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.40 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.40 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.40 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.40 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.40 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.39 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.39 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.39 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.39 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.39 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.39 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.39 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.39 | $54,725,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.35 | $55,431,541 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.35 | $55,431,541 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.35 | $55,431,541 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.35 | $55,431,541 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.35 | $55,431,541 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.35 | $55,431,541 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.35 | $55,431,541 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.35 | $55,431,541 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.35 | $55,431,541 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.35 | $55,431,541 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.37 | $55,945,233 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.37 | $55,945,233 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.37 | $55,945,233 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.37 | $55,945,233 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.37 | $55,945,233 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.37 | $55,945,233 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.37 | $55,945,233 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.37 | $55,945,233 | 4 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.