Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp. (ACRE)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.57+0.44%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ACRE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -0.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ACRE — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-04
and Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2 hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing made under the Securities Act of 1933, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: Net income is over $4.4 million. This shows recovery and supports the dividend.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 2026 is reported above $4.4 million.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 2026 is reported below $4.4 million.
Why it matters: Changes in funding agreements can affect cash flow and growth. More funding is a good sign.
Watch forSecured funding agreements rise a lot from $1.17 billion.
Also watch forSecured funding agreements fall or stay the same.
Why it matters: More loan commitments show a strong investment plan and growth in the portfolio.
Supportive ifManagement says new loan commitments are over $130 million for Q3.
Worry ifNew loan commitments fall below $95 million in Q3.
Why it matters: The $0.15 dividend shows the company is stable. It also cares about investors.
Supportive ifThe Board declares the third quarter dividend at $0.15 per common share.
Worry ifThe Board cuts the dividend below $0.15 per common share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$150 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $325 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,324 loss on $10,000 · 23.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in real estate can affect ACRE's growth and plans.
Watch forSector revenue growth is back above 5%. This improves ACRE's outlook.
Also watch forSector revenue growth slows further, adding pressure on ACRE's performance.
Why it matters: A strong earnings report would help restore confidence after the recent earnings miss.
Supportive ifThe Q2 earnings report shows net income of at least $0. This means recovery is happening.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows a net loss greater than -$9.6M.
Why it matters: Ongoing changes in net income may mean bigger money issues. Stability would mean things are better.
Worry ifNet income in Q2 2026 is positive.
Less concerning ifNet income in Q2 2026 remains negative.
Why it matters: Fixing these loans is key for a better portfolio. It helps improve quality.
Supportive ifManagement reports a big drop in risky loans rated 4 and 5.
Worry ifThe number of risk rated 4 and 5 loans increases or remains unchanged.
Why it matters: Big changes in net income show serious financial management problems that need to be solved.
Worry ifNet income stabilizes to a loss of less than -$5M in Q2.
Less concerning ifNet income declines further to worse than -$10M in Q2.
Why it matters: Negative cash flow shows money problems. Improvement means the company is doing better.
Supportive ifCash from operations turns positive in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations remains negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in PPI can affect interest rates and borrowing costs for real estate.
Watch forPPI shows a big rise, which means costs are going up.
Also watch forPPI shows a big drop, which means costs are going down.
Why it matters: Ongoing losses show there are bigger problems. These problems are in managing finances and operations.
Worry ifNet income is getting better and is closer to breaking even.
Less concerning ifNet income remains negative or worsens in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This earnings report will show if the company can keep its dividend during tough times.
Watch forThe earnings report shows positive net income. This lets the company keep the $0.15 dividend.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows negative net income. This raises concerns about the dividend's future.
Why it matters: Stabilizing net income is key. It helps restore investor trust and boosts share value.
Worry ifNet income is improving. This shows better financial management.
Less concerning ifNet income is going down again. This shows ongoing problems and management issues.