Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Acacia Research Corp. (ACTG)
NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.36+2.11%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ACTG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Use capital base to support long-term growth | It has a strong capital base to support growth. | Intact | Capital base shrinks significantly over next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ACTG is a growth-oriented operating-business story, with recent revenue expansion led primarily by Intellectual Property Operations. The long-term thesis is still intact but under watch, as recent financial performance trails its industry cohort and earnings quality is fragile.
Valuation is expensive versus peers, and the expectations gap is elevated, suggesting the market already assumes strong delivery. The priced-in assessment is tagged unjustified because valuation is high alongside weak execution quality, though confidence in that assessment is medium.
Near term, revenue growth is a positive: revenue rose 124% year over year in 2026-Q2, and management’s growth priority is on track. But recent financial performance is neutral, the sector backdrop is a headwind, and a guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative; three recent earnings beats provide some counterweight.
Over the next year, the key company-specific swing factor is whether ACTG sustains revenue growth without cutting guidance. Sector signals also matter: continued earnings strength and higher guidance from CTAS, CPRT, and ROL could support the Industrials backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
For a 1- to 3-year view, ACTG has evidence of fast revenue growth but also fragile earnings quality, elevated risk, and expensive valuation, with recent performance below its industry cohort. The thesis hinges on sustained execution and the direction of sector conditions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Acacia Research Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=0.25 USD per share. |
| Broken |
| EPS remains below zero through 2026 |
Diluted EPS: $-0.11 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.25 USD per share. Target period ends 2025-06-30; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Aug 6, 2026-0.11 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Grow revenue to at least $54.2M in 2026-Q1 | A primary condition in Acacia Research Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=54.2 million USD. | Intact | Revenue falls below $50 million in 2026-Q1 | Revenue: $114.562M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=54.2 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026114,562,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.35 → $-0.35 · observed estimates
$0.20B → $0.20B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.35 | $200,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.