Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ACV Auctions, Inc. (ACVA)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.500.00%
Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.34 → 0.32 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 26, 2026 to Oct 26, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ACVA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA reaches $18M to $20M in Q2 2026 | Profit margins improve with adjusted EBITDA near $19M in Q2. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $15M in Q2 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 26, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 4, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented business with a watch-stage multi-year view, not a proven durable compounder. Revenue is advancing, but the company remains loss-making and recent financial performance is weak.
ACVA is valued at a sizeable premium to peers, and the valuation model points to a meaningful gap between expectations and current conditions. Model confidence is low, so the premium is difficult to assess precisely; the evidence does not show a full stack of expensive valuation, weak performance, and turbulence already reflected in expectations.
Near term, revenue growth and higher Marketplace and Service Revenue support progress, but Q2 Marketplace Units were approximately flat year over year. Guidance was reaffirmed as of August 10, while the company’s weak results and peers’ recent misses remain risks; management execution is also described as volatile.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on revenue growth translating into stronger unit activity and clearer progress in commercial accounts and wallet share. Guidance cuts would be a negative signal, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the business backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those peers could weaken it.
For a 1- to 3-year view, ACVA has signs of revenue progress but still faces losses, limited volume growth, and elevated execution risk. The premium valuation and low-confidence expectations gap leave the thesis dependent on sustained operating progress. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in ACV Auctions, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 10%-12% YoY growth. |
| Intact |
| Revenue growth falls below 8% YoY in Q2 2026 |
Revenue growth: 10.45% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 10%-12% YoY growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 202610.447954 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 26, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows about 14% to $850M in 2026 | ACV Auctions grows revenue about 14% yearly, aiming for $850M in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $800M in FY26 | Revenue: $213.941M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$850M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 2026213,941,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Oct 26, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.33 → $0.32 · observed estimates
$0.95B → $0.95B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.33 | $951,598,036 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.33 | $951,598,036 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.33 | $951,598,036 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.33 | $951,598,040 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.33 | $951,598,040 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.33 | $951,598,040 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.33 | $951,598,040 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.33 | $951,598,040 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.33 | $951,598,040 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.33 | $951,598,040 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.33 | $951,598,040 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.33 | $951,598,040 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.33 | $951,598,036 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.33 | $951,598,040 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.33 | $951,598,036 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.33 | $951,598,040 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.33 | $951,598,040 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.33 | $951,598,040 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.33 | $951,598,040 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.33 | $951,598,036 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.33 | $951,598,036 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.33 | $951,598,036 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.33 | $951,598,036 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.33 | $951,598,036 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.33 | $951,598,036 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.33 | $951,598,036 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.33 | $951,598,036 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.33 | $951,598,036 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.35 | $944,077,407 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.35 | $944,077,407 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.35 | $944,077,407 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.35 | $944,077,407 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.35 | $944,077,407 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.35 | $944,077,407 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.35 | $944,077,407 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.35 | $944,077,407 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.35 | $944,077,407 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.35 | $944,077,407 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.35 | $944,077,407 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.35 | $944,077,407 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.35 | $944,077,407 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.35 | $944,077,407 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.35 | $944,077,407 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.35 | $944,077,407 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.35 | $944,077,407 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.35 | $944,077,407 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.35 | $944,077,407 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.35 | $944,077,407 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.35 | $944,077,407 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.35 | $944,077,407 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.34 | $942,088,717 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.32 | $945,409,485 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.32 | $945,409,485 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.32 | $945,409,485 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.32 | $945,409,485 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.32 | $945,409,485 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.32 | $945,409,485 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.32 | $945,409,485 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.32 | $945,409,485 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.32 | $945,409,485 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Sep 27–Oct 26 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Sep 27, 2026–Oct 26, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.