ACV Auctions, Inc. (ACVA)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.98+4.18%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ACVA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -15.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 13.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 28.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 14 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ACVA — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-10
CFO — Timothy Fox: The filing primarily announces the internal promotion of Timothy Fox to CFO to succeed the departing CFO, representing an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to meeting management's target. It shows ACV's ability to expand in a tough market.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue reported between $213 million and $217 million.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth below 10% YoY.
Why it matters: This report will provide insights into revenue growth and profitability. It is a key moment for investors.
Watch forQ2 2026 earnings report shows strong revenue and EBITDA results.
Also watch forQ2 2026 earnings report shows weak revenue and EBITDA results.
Why it matters: Gains show good execution of growth plans. This helps revenue growth.
Supportive ifManagement says market share in dealer wholesale grew in Q3.
Worry ifNo mention of market share gains in dealer wholesale in Q3.
Why it matters: Reaffirming this guidance shows ACV's confidence in its growth strategy.
Supportive ifManagement says they expect revenue to be between $845 million and $855 million.
Worry ifManagement has cut their revenue guidance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$210 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $545 loss on $10,000 · 5.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,486 loss on $10,000 · 64.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Gaining market share is crucial for ACV's long-term growth. It shows competitive strength.
Supportive ifACV gains more market share in dealer wholesale in Q2 2026.
Worry ifMarket share goes down or stays the same in dealer wholesale.
Why it matters: The $100 million share buyback shows management cares about how they use money.
Watch forManagement shares progress on the share buyback program.
Also watch forNo updates on the share repurchase program by the next earnings call.
Why it matters: A positive shift in revenue growth could signal a recovery in the consumer discretionary sector. This may benefit ACV.
Supportive ifThe consumer discretionary sector is seeing revenue growth. This is the first time in over a year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is still negative for another quarter.
Why it matters: This would test management's confidence in growth amid market challenges. It signals if growth is slowing.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was $219 million or less. This shows weaker growth.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue reported above $225 million, showing strong growth.
Why it matters: This shows strong efficiency and profit. It helps meet growth goals.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA was over $24 million. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was below $21 million. This shows the company is having problems.