Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Adamas Trust, Inc. (ADAM)
NASDAQReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.92-4.21%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.03 → 1.04 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ADAM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend per share increases to at least $0.27 by 2026-Q2 | Adamas Trust raises dividends steadily, now $0.27 per share in 2026-Q2. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.27 by 2026-Q2 | Dividend per share: $0.30 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.27 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 30, 20260.3 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ADAM is a real estate portfolio-growth and income story, with recent earnings momentum rather than a proven low-risk compounding profile. The long-term thesis is intact, but management volatility and market exposure make execution important.
ADAM is labeled cheap versus peers, while the overall pricing signal is stretched, so the valuation picture is mixed. The expectations gap is modest, and the evidence says weak execution quality is not fully reflected in the broader pricing setup.
Near term, results have been strong: revenue and portfolio investments expanded, and the latest report showed higher earnings available for distribution and a dividend covered by those earnings. But the Q3 GAAP loss and lower book value per share point to market sensitivity, while the recent in-line earnings event and quiet miss-risk signal offer limited evidence of an immediate change in trajectory.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on disciplined investment deployment continuing to support earnings and distributions without further damage to book value. A guidance cut after the recent increase would hurt management credibility, while Fed rate cuts could help rate-sensitive real estate; weakness among sector peers could remove that support.
ADAM’s multi-year view is supported by strong recent performance and portfolio growth, but remains exposed to volatile results, management execution, and real estate market conditions. The thesis is intact, not settled. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Adamas Trust, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $0.27 for 2026-Q2 and >= $0.41 for 2026-FY. |
| Intact |
| EPS guidance falls below $0.27 for 2026-Q2 or below $0.41 for 2026-FY |
Diluted EPS: $-1.89 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.27 for 2026-Q2 and >= $0.41 for 2026-FY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 30, 2026-1.89 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net income grows to at least $48.6 million by 2026-Q1 | Net income grew from $8.5M to $48.6M in the same period. | Improving | net income falls below $48.6 million by 2026-Q1 | Net income: $-159.134M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $48.6 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 30, 2026-159,134,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves to at least $86.7 million by 2026-Q1 | Operating income jumped from $4.3M to $86.7M in one year. | Improving | operating income falls below $86.7 million by 2026-Q1 | Operating income: $-162.152M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $86.7 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 30, 2026-162,152,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.13 → $1.04 · observed estimates
$0.22B → $0.29B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.13 | $217,540,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.13 | $217,540,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.13 | $217,540,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.12 | $217,540,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.10 | $273,872,378 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.12 | $217,540,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.12 | $217,540,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.13 | $273,872,378 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.17 | $220,877,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.23 | $229,582,200 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.23 | $229,582,200 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.23 | $229,582,200 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.23 | $229,582,200 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.23 | $229,582,200 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.23 | $229,582,200 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.23 | $229,582,200 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.23 | $229,582,200 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.29 | $282,154,677 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.23 | $229,582,200 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.23 | $229,582,200 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.23 | $229,582,200 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.29 | $282,154,677 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.29 | $282,154,677 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.29 | $282,154,677 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.29 | $282,154,677 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.29 | $282,154,677 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.29 | $282,154,677 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.29 | $282,154,677 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.03 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.02 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.02 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.02 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.02 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.02 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.02 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.02 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.02 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.02 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.02 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.02 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.02 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.02 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.02 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.02 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.02 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.02 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.02 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.02 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.02 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.02 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.02 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.02 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.01 | $292,520,665 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.01 | $292,520,665 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.01 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.01 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.04 | $292,520,665 | 4 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.