Adamas Trust, Inc. (ADAM)
NASDAQReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.18+7.85%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ADAM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -57.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -52.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 20 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ADAM — earnings in line
Dated 2026-10-28
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 28, 2026, Adamas Trust, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. In addition, in conjunction with the press release announcing its financial results, the Company posted supplemental financial information o…
Why it matters: The BPL-Rental portfolio grew to $2.6 billion, with average FICO of 751 and DSCR of 1.35x. Further growth with steady loan measures would support this business.
Supportive ifBPL-Rental UPB rises above $2.6 billion while average FICO stays at or above 751 and DSCR at or above 1.35x.
Worry ifBPL-Rental UPB falls below $2.6 billion, or reported average FICO or DSCR drops below 751 or 1.35x.
Why it matters: Q3 EAD was $0.30 per share, equal to the dividend. A shortfall would weaken the stated support for steady payments.
Watch forNext-quarter EAD is at least $0.30 per share and the common dividend stays at $0.30 or higher.
Also watch forNext-quarter EAD falls below $0.30 per share, or the common dividend is cut below $0.30.
Why it matters: Q3 market swings cut adjusted book value, mainly through lower Agency values. Management had cut TBA shorts by 76% after quarter-end.
Watch forThe next report shows higher Agency values. It also says TBA short positions remain below September levels.
Also watch forThe next report shows lower Agency values or a renewed rise in TBA short positions to manage spread risk.
Why it matters: The Q3 deal had a 5.73% effective cost and a 136-basis-point net spread. Better terms could help support earnings from new loans.
Watch forA new BPL-Rental deal reports an effective cost of 5.73% or less and a net spread of 136 basis points or more.
Also watch forA new BPL-Rental deal reports an effective cost above 5.73% and a net spread under 136 basis points.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$99 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $355 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,399 loss on $10,000 · 44.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q3 adjusted book value fell to $8.88 per share. A recovery would show that the sharp loss from lower Agency values has eased.
Watch forAdjusted book value per share rises from $8.88 in the next reported quarter.
Also watch forAdjusted book value per share falls further from $8.88 in the next reported quarter.