Adamas Trust, Inc. (ADAM)
NASDAQReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.75+0.52%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ADAM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -37.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -47.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ADAM — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-14
Other Events. On August 14, 2026, Adamas Trust, Inc., a Maryland corporation (the “Company”), completed the issuance and sale of $90 million aggregate principal amount of its 9.600% Senior Notes due 2031 (the “Notes”), in a public offering pursuant to the Company’s registration statement on Form S-3 (File No. 333-290073) (the “Registration Statement”) and a related prospectus, as supplemented by a preliminary prospectus supplement, dated August 11, 2026 and a final prospectus supplement dated…
Why it matters: Earnings per share above $0.48 would show continued growth and strong performance.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings per share reported above $0.48.
Worry ifQ3 earnings per share reported below $0.48.
Why it matters: A further increase would show strong earnings and management confidence. It reflects the company's financial health.
Supportive ifThe company pays a quarterly dividend of more than $0.30 per share.
Worry ifThe company maintains the dividend at $0.30 or lowers it.
Why it matters: More net interest income shows the portfolio is doing well and earnings are growing.
Supportive ifTotal net interest income was over $50.3 million.
Worry ifTotal net interest income was below $50.3 million.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows that the company is expanding and running well.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 exceeds $60.7 million, which is a 10% increase from Q2.
Worry ifNet income growth is below 10% YoY.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$93 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $255 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,193 loss on $10,000 · 21.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A big change in leverage can show changes in financial health. It also shows risk management.
Watch forThe Company Recourse Leverage Ratio is now below 5.5x.
Also watch forThe Company Recourse Leverage Ratio is now above 5.5x.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows that management's strategy works. It also shows their portfolio is growing.
Supportive ifOperating income will rise above $53.1 million next quarter.
Worry ifOperating income declines or fails to grow from $53.1 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Big portfolio expansion would help the growth plan and improve earnings.
Supportive ifThere is news about portfolio growth of over $1.5 billion.
Worry ifNo news of portfolio expansion or smaller amounts.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows growth strategies are working. This also increases value for shareholders.
Supportive ifNet income increases beyond $55.2 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifNet income falls below $55.2 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: An increase in book value per share indicates strong asset management and financial health. It reflects the company's growth strategy.
Supportive ifBook value per share increases beyond $9.98 in the next quarter.
Worry ifBook value per share decreases or remains stagnant.
Why it matters: A dividend increase would show good earnings. It would also show management cares about returns.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share or more.
Worry ifThe Board declares a dividend lower than $0.30 per share.