Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$3.71 → $3.79 · observed estimates
Adient (ADNT)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$17.07-0.70%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.71 → 3.79 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ADNT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross profit improvement to at least $257 million quarterly | Profit improved with gross profit rising to $257 million and operating income to $76 million. | Broken | Gross profit falls below $217 million next quarter | Gross profit: $235M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=257 million USD gross profit. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 2026235,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$3.71 → $3.79 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical auto-supplier business with a growth-and-margin improvement thesis, rather than a proven durable compounder. The signal has shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, while recent performance remains below its industry cohort and the thesis is still in a watch state.
The valuation evidence is mixed: ADNT screens cheap versus peers, while another peer comparison measure shows a 0.7 premium. The expectations gap is negative, which suggests assumptions are not especially demanding, and the priced-in fragility assessment is low with no warning gates triggered.
Near term, revenue growth has been consistent with management’s priority, including higher consolidated revenue from Q1 to Q3 and strong China sales against a declining market. Margin progress is mixed: Q3 gross profit fell from Q2, adjusted EBITDA margin was slightly lower year over year, and net income declined; recent performance also trails the industry cohort. Management is on track with growth and capital allocation priorities, but margin pressure, erratic earnings surprises, and a possible guidance cut remain risks.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether revenue growth can translate into stronger gross profit and operating income. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers GPC, BWA, and APTV could support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken it.
For the 1-3 year view, ADNT has evidence of growth execution and a mildly improved signal, but margin pressure and weaker performance than peers leave the thesis unresolved. The key test is whether management can turn revenue growth into better profitability without a guidance setback. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Adient's published investment case. The stated target is Stable management with no major disruptions. |
| Improving |
| Significant management turnover or strategy reversal |
CFO transition managed; FY27 EBITDA guide $900M-$925M CFO transition to external hire; FY27 revenue/EBITDA guidance issued; M&A agreement signed. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income to reach at least $76 million quarterly | Profit improved with gross profit rising to $257 million and operating income to $76 million. | Broken | Operating income falls below $41 million next quarter | Operating income: $114M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=76 million USD operating income. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 2026114,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth to sustain at least 1% annually | A primary condition in Adient's published investment case. The stated target is >=1% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 1% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$15.53B → $15.44B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $3.71 | $15,534,631,984 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.71 | $15,534,631,984 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.71 | $15,534,631,984 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.71 | $15,534,631,984 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.71 | $15,534,631,984 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.71 | $15,534,631,984 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.71 | $15,534,631,984 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.67 | $15,531,122,964 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.85 | $15,531,122,964 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.85 | $15,531,122,964 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.85 | $15,531,122,964 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.85 | $15,531,122,964 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.85 | $15,531,122,964 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.85 | $15,531,122,964 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.85 | $15,531,122,964 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.85 | $15,531,122,964 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.85 | $15,531,122,964 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.86 | $15,531,122,964 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.86 | $15,531,122,964 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.83 | $15,483,122,964 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.83 | $15,483,122,964 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.83 | $15,483,122,964 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.79 | $15,444,256,297 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.79 | $15,444,256,297 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.79 | $15,444,256,297 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.79 | $15,444,256,297 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.79 | $15,444,256,297 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.79 | $15,444,256,297 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.79 | $15,444,256,297 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.79 | $15,444,256,297 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.79 | $15,444,256,297 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.79 | $15,444,256,297 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.79 | $15,444,256,297 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.79 | $15,444,256,297 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.79 | $15,444,256,297 | 3 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.