Adient (ADNT)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$20.01+2.25%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ADNT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -48.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 48.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ADNT — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-21
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 20, 2026 (the “Amendment Effective Date”), Adient US LLC, a Michigan limited liability company (the “Lead Borrower”), Adient Global Holdings S.à.r.l., a private limited liability company ( société à responsabilité limitée ) incorporated under the laws of the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg (together with the Lead Borrower, the “Borrowers” and each, a “Borrower”), Adient plc (“Parent”), Adient Global Holdings Ltd (“Adient Global Holdings”) and ce…
Why it matters: More share buybacks show management trusts the company's value and finances.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $30 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifShare repurchases remain at or below $30 million.
Why it matters: New business wins in China are key to driving growth and market share.
Supportive ifAdient announces new business wins in China totaling more than $1.1B.
Worry ifNew business wins in China fall below $1.1B.
Why it matters: A rise in operating income shows effective cost control and revenue growth. This is key for Adient's financial health.
Supportive ifOperating income is over $100M. This shows strong financial performance.
Worry ifOperating income is below $100M. This suggests there are challenges in managing costs.
Why it matters: Exceeding $1.1B in new business shows strong demand and market share growth in a key region.
Supportive ifNew business wins in China reported above $1.1 billion.
Worry ifNew business wins in China reported below $1.1 billion.
Why it matters: A higher gross profit margin shows better cost control and stronger pricing.
Supportive ifGross profit margin is expected to be over 6% in the next quarters.
Worry ifGross profit margin is expected to be under 5% in the next quarters.
Why it matters: Higher margins mean better cost control. This helps the company make more money.
Supportive ifGross profit margin is over 5.8%. This shows management is focused on making more money.
Worry ifGross profit margin is below 5.8%. This suggests problems with managing costs.
Why it matters: Higher gross profit means better cost control. It also means more efficient operations.
Supportive ifGross profit rises above $261M in the next quarter.
Worry ifGross profit falls below $257M. This shows possible problems in operations.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show trust in financial health and spending.
Supportive ifAdient announces over $30M in share buybacks for Q3.
Worry ifShare repurchases remain below $30M in Q3.
Why it matters: New ventures will help growth in China. They match management's strategy.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new joint venture in China to enhance market presence.
Worry ifNo new joint ventures announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The change may affect financial plans and investor trust during a key growth time.
Worry ifThe new CFO transition was successful. It did not disrupt financial reporting or plans.
Less concerning ifThere are delays or issues with the CFO transition. This creates uncertainty in finances.
Why it matters: A new CFO could change financial strategy and impact investor sentiment. Stability is crucial.
Worry ifA new CFO is appointed before December 31, 2026.
Less concerning ifNo announcement of a new CFO by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Q3 results will show if revenue growth continues or if it stalls. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales increase year over year by more than 5%.
Worry ifQ3 net sales decrease year over year or grow less than 2%.
Why it matters: Better margins show good cost management. This may increase investor confidence.
Supportive ifGross profit margin improves to above 6% in the next quarter.
Worry ifGross profit margin declines or stays below 5.5%.
Why it matters: Lower restructuring costs mean the company is managed well. It also shows better operations.
Supportive ifRestructuring costs reported below $10M in the next quarter.
Worry ifRestructuring costs reported above $15M in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Stable or lower debt levels show good financial management and less risk.
Supportive ifTotal debt decreases from $2.4B in Q1 to below $2.3B in Q2.
Worry ifTotal debt is over $2.4B in Q2. This raises concerns about financial stability.
Why it matters: Sales growth in China is critical for Adient's overall performance. It shows resilience against market headwinds.
Supportive ifSales in China grow by more than 18% year-over-year in the next quarter.
Worry ifSales in China drop or rise less than 10% each year. This shows loss of market share.
Why it matters: The CFO change might impact financial plans and how investors feel.
Watch forFinancial performance gets better after the transition with a clear plan.
Also watch forFinancial performance gets worse or stays the same after the transition.
Why it matters: A new CFO can change financial stability and future plans.
Worry ifThe new CFO gives steady financial guidance after the change.
Less concerning ifNew CFO fails to provide stable financial guidance or revises guidance downward.
Why it matters: Stable adjusted EBITDA is key for keeping profits steady as costs rise.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA remains at or above $225M.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA falls below $225M.
Why it matters: Winning new business from C-OEMs shows that Adient is competitive and can grow.
Supportive ifAdient secures over $1.1B in new business from C-OEMs in FY26.
Worry ifNew business wins are below $500M in FY26. This shows competitive challenges.
Why it matters: Successful program launches show strong execution. This is important for the company's growth.
Supportive ifAt least 46 new programs launched successfully. This confirms Adient's ability to operate well.
Worry ifFewer than 46 programs launched or there are delays. This shows possible execution problems.
Why it matters: Stable or lower debt levels show better financial health. This means better risk management.
Supportive ifTotal debt is stable or going down. This confirms good financial management.
Worry ifTotal debt is rising a lot. This raises worries about financial stability.
Why it matters: This growth shows Adient can make more money even with market problems. It proves management is good at winning new business.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ4 revenue growth is 5% or lower year over year.
Why it matters: A successful launch would strengthen Adient's market position and expand its customer base in China. This is crucial for long-term growth.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new contracts or revenue from the joint venture within six months.
Worry ifNo new contracts or revenue reported from the joint venture in the same timeframe.
Why it matters: A better margin means lower costs and better operations. This is important for making money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is over 6% in Q4.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin remains at or below 6% in Q4.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$192 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $526 loss on $10,000 · 5.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,304 loss on $10,000 · 33.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.