Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp. (ADPT)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$26.83+0.45%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ADPT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Effective use of $345 million convertible notes for buybacks and debt repayment | The $345 million convertible notes fund share buybacks, supporting capital allocation. | Improving | Convertible notes proceeds not used for planned buybacks or debt repayment | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ADPT is a growth-oriented healthcare business with a durable premium versus peers, rather than a proven profitable compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, with management delivering on growth and expense priorities, though the company remains loss-making.
The evidence labels the valuation as justified and the premium versus peers as durable, with no fragility signals. The expectations gap is modestly negative, but valuation-model confidence is low, so how much future execution is already assumed remains uncertain.
Near term, MRD revenue growth and operating expense control are tracking management’s stated priorities; MRD revenue rose 33% year over year in 2026-Q2, and full-year guidance was raised. ADPT remains loss-making, and the industry’s high rate of missed results is a risk despite the quiet near-term risk assessment.
The multi-year view depends on continued MRD growth, disciplined expenses, and management maintaining credibility after raising guidance. A guidance reversal or weakening employment data could weigh on the business backdrop, while strong results from major healthcare peers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ADPT’s thesis rests on turning strong MRD growth and cost discipline into a stronger financial profile while managing elevated execution risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is operating expenses >= $350 million and <= $360 million. |
| Intact |
| operating expenses exceed $360 million or fall below $350 million in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Positive adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow by end of 2026 | The company aims for positive adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow by end of 2026. | Improving | adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow remain negative through FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
MRD revenue reaches $260-$270 million in 2026 | A primary condition in Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $260 million and <= $270 million. | Intact | MRD revenue falls below $260 million in FY26 | Revenue: $83.902M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $260 million and <= $270 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202683,902,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.24 → $-0.17 · observed estimates
$0.35B → $0.36B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.24 | $352,208,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.24 | $352,208,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.24 | $352,208,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.24 | $352,208,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.24 | $352,208,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.24 | $352,208,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.21 | $354,524,632 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.24 | $352,208,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.22 | $354,597,680 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.18 | $357,385,180 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.18 | $357,385,180 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.18 | $357,385,180 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.17 | $357,328,569 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.18 | $358,535,180 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.18 | $358,535,180 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.18 | $358,535,180 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.18 | $358,535,180 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.18 | $358,535,180 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.18 | $358,535,180 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.18 | $358,535,180 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.18 | $358,535,180 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.18 | $357,328,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.18 | $357,328,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.18 | $357,328,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.18 | $357,328,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.18 | $357,328,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.18 | $357,328,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.18 | $357,328,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.18 | $358,478,569 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.17 | $359,032,319 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.17 | $359,003,382 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.17 | $359,003,382 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.17 | $359,004,507 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.17 | $359,004,507 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.17 | $359,004,507 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.17 | $359,004,507 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.17 | $359,004,507 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.17 | $360,365,895 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.17 | $360,365,895 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.17 | $359,143,673 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.17 | $359,143,673 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.17 | $359,143,673 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.17 | $359,143,673 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.17 | $359,143,673 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.17 | $359,143,673 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.17 | $359,143,673 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.17 | $359,143,673 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.17 | $359,143,673 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.17 | $359,143,673 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.17 | $359,143,673 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.17 | $359,143,673 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.17 | $359,143,673 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.17 | $359,143,673 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.17 | $359,186,605 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.17 | $359,186,605 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.17 | $359,186,605 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.17 | $359,186,605 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.17 | $359,186,605 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.17 | $359,186,605 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.17 | $360,106,549 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.17 | $360,106,549 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.17 | $360,106,549 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.17 | $360,106,549 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.17 | $360,106,549 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.17 | $360,106,549 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.17 | $360,106,524 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.17 | $360,106,524 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.17 | $360,106,524 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.17 | $360,106,524 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.17 | $360,106,524 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.17 | $360,106,524 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.17 | $360,106,524 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.17 | $360,106,524 | 6 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.