Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp. (ADPT)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$24.28-1.18%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ADPT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ADPT — officer change
Dated 2026-07-29
Chief Scientific Officer and Co-founder — Dr. Harlan Robins: Dr. Robins transitioned into a strategic consultant role.
Why it matters: Controlling operating costs is key for good financial health.
Worry ifOperating expenses for Q2 exceed the guided range of $350 million to $360 million.
Less concerning ifOperating expenses for Q2 stay within or below the guided range.
Why it matters: The share buyback can support the stock price and reduce dilution. This could enhance shareholder value.
Supportive ifStock price goes up after the buyback announcement.
Worry ifStock price goes down even with the buyback announcement.
Why it matters: Meeting this goal shows better financial health and efficiency.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is positive by the end of 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA remains negative by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: If the sector's revenue growth picks up, it could help Adaptive Biotechnologies. This would signal a better environment for growth.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth rises back toward 10% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth continues to decline below 5% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$207 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $620 loss on $10,000 · 6.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,935 loss on $10,000 · 39.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A key goal for management is to reach positive adjusted EBITDA by the end of 2026.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA loss narrows to less than -$2.5 million for Q2.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA loss remains worse than -$2.5 million for Q2.
Why it matters: This separation could create value and help focus on core businesses.
Supportive ifThe split of MRD and Immune Medicine businesses is done.
Worry ifNo progress reported on the separation by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: This would indicate a slowdown in the MRD business, which is crucial for growth.
Worry ifQ3 MRD revenue growth below 26% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 MRD revenue growth meets or exceeds 26%.
Why it matters: High expenses might show bad cost management. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifTotal operating costs are more than $355 million for the year.
Less concerning ifTotal operating costs stay between $350 million and $355 million.