Autodesk (ADSK)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$217.90-8.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ADSK
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $218 ADSK trades at 23× p/e, below its 27× p/e peer median. Our $257 fair value sits above the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $260–$369. Note: our $257 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($260–$369). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $315.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $424.49 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $425.43 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $58.51 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$260.00 – $369.00 (median $315.00) · 17 analysts · as of 2026-09-01
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 13% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 1.5 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $7.00/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3, 2027-Q1, 2027-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $122.30 |
| 13.6 |
| 8.93 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $240.24 | 18.6 | 12.93 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $235.83 | 17.5 | 13.50 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $139.20 | 3.8 | 36.92 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $173.82 | 18.3 | 9.49 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $51.50 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $273.30 | 27.4 | 9.96 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $283.20 | 18.6 | 15.25 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $267.09 | 17.5 | 15.28 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $178.17 | 3.8 | 47.26 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $279.95 | 18.3 | 15.28 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $316.03 | 18.6 | 17.01 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $293.43 | 17.5 | 16.79 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $195.73 | 3.8 | 51.92 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $307.55 | 18.3 | 16.79 | Analyst | medium |