Autodesk (ADSK)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$217.90-8.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Operating margin near 28%: 29.3% vs 28% target.
Autodesk keeps growing revenue about 13% a year. Profit margin rose from 22% to 28%. Free cash flow is strong near $2.76 billion. The MaintainX acquisition supports future growth.
Near-term profit margin may weaken due to MaintainX costs. The recent selloff shows investor worries. Growth could slow below expectations.
The price is about 20% below our fair value near $264. Analysts expect about 13% revenue growth. Our fair value is 14% below the Street median, reflecting cautious optimism.
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $2.26B next year
Breaks if: MaintainX causes sustained profit margin decline or guidance cut
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on long-term growth. The current thesis is intact, supported by strong recent financial results and strategic acquisitions, but it faces volatility in management execution and sector risks.
The market appears to have priced in a justified valuation, with Autodesk being viewed as cheap compared to its peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that some positive performance may not be fully reflected in the current valuation.
Fundamentals are likely to show continued strong revenue and billings growth, as management is on track with key priorities like the integration of MaintainX. However, there is a near-term risk of missing earnings expectations, although the probability is relatively low.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and successfully integrate acquisitions. Additionally, external factors such as potential Fed rate cuts and performance from sector peers will play a crucial role in shaping future outcomes.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The company’s strong revenue and billings growth remain intact. However, a sharp drop in the stock price suggests a potential repricing of the thesis. This price movement indicates that the market may be reassessing the reasons to own the stock.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Autodesk plans to acquire MaintainX to advance its unified platform in operations.
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 22% next year
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 12.8% next year
Autodesk plans to acquire MaintainX to advance its unified platform in operations.
In the next 1 to 3 years, Autodesk's performance will depend on its execution of strategic priorities and external market conditions. Not investment advice.