Autodesk (ADSK)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
$269.16-0.34%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ADSK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 27.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 61 industry peers
ADSK — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-09-10
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under Item 1.01, “Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement,” is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: The notes due in 2029 add debt while Autodesk is funding MaintainX. Clear debt and cash updates would show how the deal affects its finances.
Watch forAutodesk reports cash and free cash flow that support its stated fiscal 2027 cash goal, with no cut to that goal.
Also watch forAutodesk cuts its fiscal 2027 free cash flow goal or reports a clear decline in cash alongside higher debt.
Why it matters: Autodesk named cash generation and careful spending as priorities. Results in this range would match its stated cash goal.
Supportive ifAutodesk keeps fiscal 2027 free cash flow guidance at $2.725 billion to $2.75 billion or raises it.
Worry ifAutodesk cuts fiscal 2027 free cash flow guidance below $2.725 billion.
Why it matters: Autodesk says its sales reorganization is under way, but has not given a savings figure. Lower costs would show progress.
Supportive ifAutodesk reports lower sales and marketing costs as a share of revenue. It keeps its revenue guidance.
Worry ifAutodesk reports higher sales and marketing costs as a share of revenue. It reports no named savings progress.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$177 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $423 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,949 loss on $10,000 · 39.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.