Autodesk (ADSK)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$217.90-8.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ADSK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -15.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 28.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ADSK — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-13
Other Events. Commercial Paper Program On July 13, 2026, Autodesk, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), established an unsecured commercial paper program (the “Commercial Paper Program”). Under the terms of the Commercial Paper Program, the Company may issue, from time to time, unsecured commercial paper notes with varying maturities not in excess of 365 days from the date of issue (the “Notes”). Amounts available under the Commercial Paper Program may be borrowed, repaid and re-borr…
Why it matters: Exceeding 30% ARR growth would show strong demand for Autodesk's subscription services. It confirms the success of their business model transition.
Supportive ifQ2 ARR growth reported above 30% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 ARR growth reported below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: The acquisition may improve Autodesk's products. This could help the company grow in the future.
Supportive ifAutodesk has finished the MaintainX acquisition. It is now part of Autodesk's product line.
Worry ifDelays or issues arise in the acquisition process.
Why it matters: Good integration can help Autodesk grow. It can also improve its market position.
Supportive ifManagement shares good news about the MaintainX deal. It may boost revenue.
Worry ifManagement talks about issues or delays with the MaintainX deal.
Why it matters: Billings growth over 50% shows strong demand and good sales performance.
Supportive ifBillings growth reported above 50% year over year.
Worry ifBillings growth reported below 50% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$176 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $427 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,256 loss on $10,000 · 42.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The growth rate of subscription plan ARR is crucial for Autodesk's revenue stability and future growth.
Supportive ifSubscription plan ARR growth rate exceeds 85% year over year.
Worry ifSubscription plan ARR growth rate falls below 75% year over year.
Why it matters: Deferred revenue growth shows future revenue potential. Strong growth means a healthy pipeline.
Supportive ifDeferred revenue increases by more than 15% year over year in Q2 FY2026.
Worry ifDeferred revenue growth is less than 10% year over year in Q2 FY2026.
Why it matters: Better sales and marketing can lead to more money and profit.
Supportive ifOperating income keeps going up. This shows that the optimization is working.
Worry ifOperating income stays the same or goes down.
Why it matters: Higher margins mean better cost control. They also show efficiency in operations.
Supportive ifGAAP operating margin is above 30% for the next quarter.
Worry ifGAAP operating margin is below 30% for the next quarter.
Why it matters: A high migration rate shows a good shift to subscriptions. This is important for future revenue.
Supportive ifMore than 500,000 maintenance customers moved to subscription plans.
Worry ifLess than 500,000 maintenance customers switched to subscription plans.
Why it matters: Slower growth in deferred revenue may show less demand for Autodesk's products.
Worry ifDeferred revenue growth reported below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifDeferred revenue growth reported at or above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Free cash flow shows how healthy and efficient a company is.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $300 million for FY2026.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow reported at or above $300 million for FY2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results show financial health and how well the company runs. Strong results can help investors feel confident.
Watch forEarnings per share (EPS) exceeds guidance of $0.06 - $0.10.
Also watch forEPS falls below guidance of $0.06 - $0.10.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is important for buying companies and supporting growth.
Supportive ifManagement raises free cash flow guidance for fiscal 2027 above $2.75 billion.
Worry ifManagement lowers free cash flow guidance for fiscal 2027 below $2.725 billion.
Why it matters: Changes in ARR growth show how well Autodesk's subscription model is doing.
Watch forARR growth rate exceeds 30% year-over-year.
Also watch forARR growth rate falls below 25% year-over-year.