Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ADT Inc. (ADT)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$9.900.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.99 → 0.99 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ADT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Net cash from operating activities >= $638 million next quarter | ADT generates strong cash flow, with $638 million net cash in Q1 2026. | Intact | net cash from operating activities falls below $500 million next quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ADT is a cash-generative, slower-growth business with a platform expansion effort, rather than a high-growth story. Its long-term thesis is intact, but management execution is volatile and progress is mixed.
The valuation evidence points to ADT being cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap and low fragility. The model confidence is high, but the evidence does not show exactly what operating assumptions the market already expects.
Near term, cash generation is a strength: management raised its full-year adjusted free cash flow growth outlook to about 30% and reported substantial capital returns in the first half of 2026. Revenue growth has been modest, while customer attrition has worsened year over year; ADT+ adoption and recent product launches offer potential, but commercial traction remains limited so far.
The multi-year view depends on whether ADT can sustain cash generation while improving customer retention and turning ADT+ and new offerings into broader commercial traction. Near term, a reversal of recently raised guidance would damage management credibility, while results and guidance from consumer-sector bellwethers could strengthen or weaken the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, ADT presents a cash-generation story with modest growth and execution risks, and the current thesis remains intact. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It is investing in cybersecurity to protect its cloud systems. |
| Intact |
| another significant cybersecurity breach occurs |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain dividend at $0.055 per share next quarter | The company maintains a stable dividend of $0.055 per share. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.05 next quarter | Dividend per share: $0.06 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0.055 USD_PER_SHARE. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 20260.055 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth >= 1.8% YoY | A primary condition in ADT Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=1.8% YoY. | Intact | revenue growth falls below 1% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.97 → $0.99 · observed estimates
$5.28B → $5.37B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.97 | $5,278,125,240 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.97 | $5,278,125,240 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.97 | $5,278,125,240 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.97 | $5,278,125,240 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.97 | $5,278,125,240 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.97 | $5,278,125,240 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.97 | $5,278,100,238 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.98 | $5,340,190,350 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.98 | $5,340,190,350 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.98 | $5,340,190,350 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.99 | $5,355,215,350 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.99 | $5,355,215,350 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.99 | $5,340,165,350 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.99 | $5,340,165,350 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.99 | $5,340,165,350 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.99 | $5,340,165,350 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.99 | $5,340,165,350 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.99 | $5,340,165,350 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.99 | $5,347,243,140 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.99 | $5,355,165,348 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.99 | $5,362,243,140 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.99 | $5,355,165,348 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.99 | $5,355,165,348 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.99 | $5,355,165,348 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.99 | $5,355,165,348 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.99 | $5,355,165,348 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.99 | $5,355,165,348 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.99 | $5,360,994,515 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.99 | $5,357,481,324 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.99 | $5,357,481,324 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.99 | $5,357,481,324 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.99 | $5,357,481,324 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.99 | $5,357,481,324 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.99 | $5,357,481,324 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.99 | $5,357,481,324 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.99 | $5,357,481,324 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.99 | $5,357,481,324 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.99 | $5,357,481,324 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.99 | $5,357,481,324 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.99 | $5,357,481,324 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.99 | $5,357,481,324 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.99 | $5,357,481,324 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.99 | $5,357,481,324 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.99 | $5,357,481,324 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.99 | $5,357,428,404 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.99 | $5,364,685,805 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.99 | $5,364,685,805 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.99 | $5,364,685,805 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.99 | $5,364,685,805 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.99 | $5,367,684,152 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.