ADT Inc. (ADT)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$9.900.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ADT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -42.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 44.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ADT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 3, 2026, ADT Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is being furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference in its entirety. The information furnished in this Form 8-K, including pursuant to
Why it matters: ADT reported 13.1% attrition in both Q1 and Q2, up from a year earlier. A higher Q3 rate would show customer losses are still rising.
Worry ifADT reports Q3 gross customer revenue attrition above 13.1%.
Less concerning ifADT reports Q3 gross customer revenue attrition below 13.1%.
Why it matters: The deal also needs U.S. antitrust approval. A delay or denial could put the $10 cash deal at risk.
Supportive ifADT or Thrive reports U.S. antitrust approval and a planned close in Q1 2027.
Worry ifA regulator blocks the deal, adds terms the parties reject, or the Q1 2027 close is delayed.
Why it matters: The deal pays $10 per share in cash if it closes. Stockholder approval is one key step.
Supportive ifADT says stockholders approved the merger deal.
Worry ifADT reports that stockholders rejected the merger agreement, or the vote fails to take place on time.
Why it matters: ADT can seek other offers through Nov. 28, with a possible 10-day extension. A higher offer could change the deal terms.
Watch forADT announces a signed higher offer. Or, before the go-shop period ends, its board says it found a better proposal.
Also watch forThe go-shop ends on Nov. 28, or after a valid extension, with no higher offer disclosed and the Thrive deal still in place.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$99 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $289 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,633 loss on $10,000 · 26.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: ADT raised its 2026 outlook to about 2% growth for revenue and adjusted EPS. The Nov. 3 report can show whether results still support it.
Watch forADT reports Q3 revenue and adjusted EPS growth that keeps it on track for about 2% growth in both for full-year 2026.
Also watch forADT lowers its full-year growth outlook to below about 2%. Or, Q3 revenue or adjusted EPS falls from the prior year.
Why it matters: ADT raised its 2026 free cash flow growth outlook to about 30% in Q2. Q3 results are the next check on that target.
Watch forADT reports Q3 adjusted free cash flow growth that keeps the company on track for about 30% growth for full-year 2026.
Also watch forADT cuts its full-year adjusted free cash flow growth outlook below about 30%, or Q3 free cash flow falls year over year.