ADT Inc. (ADT)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.46-0.67%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ADT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -48.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 51.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ADT — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-31
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Term Loan Credit Agreement Amendment On August 28, 2026 (the “Amendment Closing Date”), Prime Security Services Borrower, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“Prime Borrower”), Prime Security Services Holdings, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“Holdings”), and The ADT Security Corporation, a Delaware corporation (“ADTSC” and together with Prime Borrower, the “Borrowers”), each a direct or indirect wholly owned subsidiary of ADT Inc.…
Why it matters: A drop in RMR would suggest weakening customer demand and could impact future revenue growth.
Worry ifRMR falls below $360 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifRMR stabilizes or grows above $360 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows strong cash flow and a promise to return money to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe dividend of $0.055 per share is paid on October 1, 2026.
Worry ifThe company stops or cuts the dividend payment.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends will show how well ADT keeps and gains customers.
Worry ifTotal revenue for Q2 2026 increases by more than 1% year over year.
Less concerning ifTotal revenue for Q2 2026 decreases or grows less than 1% year over year.
Why it matters: An increase would show confidence in cash flow and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $0.055 per share.
Worry ifAnnouncement of a dividend cut or maintenance at $0.055 per share without growth in cash flow.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$111 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $273 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,771 loss on $10,000 · 27.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Negative revenue growth may show problems with keeping customers or market demand.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue declines year over year worse than -2%.
Less concerning ifQ3 total revenue grows year over year or stays flat.
Why it matters: A lower attrition rate means better customer retention. This is important for stable revenue.
Supportive ifAttrition rate improves to below 13% in Q3.
Worry ifAttrition rate remains at or above 13.1%.
Why it matters: A lower growth rate could signal issues in cash generation and capital returns. This is key for investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted Free Cash Flow growth below 30% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 Adjusted Free Cash Flow growth meets or exceeds 30% year over year.
Why it matters: Successful launches boost customer engagement. This helps grow revenue.
Supportive ifNew AI products or features are announced. They improve customer experience.
Worry ifNo new AI products are launched in the next quarter.
Why it matters: More customer loss could mean trouble keeping customers and providing good service.
Worry ifGross customer revenue attrition rises above 13.1% in Q3.
Less concerning ifGross customer revenue attrition stays at or below 13.1% in Q3.
Why it matters: Higher share repurchases show strong cash flow. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases will be over $500 million by year-end 2026.
Worry ifTotal share repurchases fall below $400 million by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: Integrating Origin AI could enhance ADT's product offerings and improve customer safety. This is key for future growth.
Supportive ifWatch for new products or features that use Origin AI's technology in the ADT system.
Worry ifNo new offerings using Origin AI's technology by the end of 2027.
Why it matters: Changes in revenue loss show how well ADT keeps customers and grows.
Worry ifCustomer revenue loss is now below 12.5%. This is an improvement.
Less concerning ifCustomer revenue loss rises above 14%.
Why it matters: Updates on share buybacks will show ADT's plan to return money to shareholders.
Supportive ifADT announces completion of $500 million in share repurchases from the plan.
Worry ifNo updates on share repurchases or a reduction in the buyback plan.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows strong cash flow and a promise to return money to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company declares a cash dividend of $0.055 per share for Q3.
Worry ifThe company reduces the dividend below $0.055 per share.
Why it matters: Updates on the $1.5 billion share buyback plan show ADT's focus on giving value to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of share buybacks over $200 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo share buybacks announced or a cut in the buyback plan.
Why it matters: Integrating Origin AI will improve ADT's products and may help gain more customers.
Supportive ifNew products using Origin AI technology will launch by early 2027.
Worry ifThere are delays in product launches. Problems with integration are also reported.
Why it matters: High use of ADT Blu shows success in reaching new markets and customers.
Supportive ifADT Blu adoption metrics show significant growth in customer sign-ups in Q3.
Worry ifADT Blu adoption metrics show stagnant or declining customer sign-ups in Q3.