Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Advantage Solutions, Inc. (ADV)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$32.16-18.93%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.34 → 0.34 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ADV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Keep capital expenditures between $50 and $60 million in 2026 | Capital spending is controlled at $50-$60 million. | Intact | Capex exceeds $60 million in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $9.438M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 50-60 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 20269,438,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making business with a volatile management record, not a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state, with recent performance below its industry cohort and the risk label recently rising from elevated to high.
ADV is described as cheap versus peers, while the model shows a negative expectations gap, meaning market expectations appear demanding relative to its outlook. Model confidence is low, and the evidence does not support a firm valuation conclusion; the low fragility reading also does not remove the business risks.
Near term, repeated earnings misses and an elevated risk of another miss make guidance and execution important. Revenue grew year over year, but adjusted EBITDA fell and the net loss widened in the second quarter of 2026. Management has reaffirmed full-year guidance, while free cash flow delivery remains mixed and depends on the rest of the year.
The multi-year thesis hinges on sustaining revenue growth while improving profitability and delivering the 2026 free cash flow goal. A guidance cut on the next call would weaken the case, while lower interest rates or continued strength among sector peers could provide a more supportive backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ADV’s business case depends on turning revenue growth into steadier cash flow and better earnings execution. Recent misses and high risk keep the thesis uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Advantage Solutions aims for $250-$275 million free cash flow in 2026. |
| Intact |
| Free cash flow falls below $250 million in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $-2.252M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=250 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 2026-2,252,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Financial Results 3rd Quarter 2026 Advantage Solutions Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results Strong top and bottom-line results in Experiential and Retailer Services Announces restructuring actions to drive approximately $25 million in annualized near-term net savings with $5+ million in additional annualized net savings planned over time Reiterates full-year Revenues, Adjusted EBITDA and cash flow guidance ST.” ““As we manage temporary timing and execution pressures in Retailer Services and a more gradual recovery in Branded Services, we are reiterating full-year guidance ranges for revenues, Adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Maintain revenue near $3.5 billion in 2026 | Management reaffirms 2026 revenue near $3.5 billion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $3.5 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $913.739M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=3500 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026913,739,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Financial Results 3rd Quarter 2026 Advantage Solutions Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results Strong top and bottom-line results in Experiential and Retailer Services Announces restructuring actions to drive approximately $25 million in annualized near-term net savings with $5+ million in additional annualized net savings planned over time Reiterates full-year Revenues, Adjusted EBITDA and cash flow guidance ST.” ““As we manage temporary timing and execution pressures in Retailer Services and a more gradual recovery in Branded Services, we are reiterating full-year guidance ranges for revenues, Adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$9.34 → $0.34 · observed estimates
$3.60B → $3.64B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $9.34 | $3,599,001,280 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $9.34 | $3,599,001,280 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $9.34 | $3,599,001,280 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $9.34 | $3,599,001,280 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $9.34 | $3,599,001,280 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $9.34 | $3,599,001,280 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $9.34 | $3,599,001,280 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $9.34 | $3,599,001,280 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $9.34 | $3,599,001,280 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $9.34 | $3,599,001,280 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $9.34 | $3,599,001,280 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $9.34 | $3,599,001,280 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $9.34 | $3,599,001,280 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $9.34 | $3,599,001,280 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $9.34 | $3,599,001,280 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.66 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.66 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.66 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.67 | $3,638,330,001 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.67 | $3,638,330,001 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.66 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.67 | $3,638,330,001 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.67 | $3,638,330,001 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.67 | $3,638,330,001 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.67 | $3,638,330,001 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.67 | $3,638,330,001 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.67 | $3,638,330,001 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.34 | $3,638,322,500 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.