Advantage Solutions, Inc. (ADV)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$31.45-1.47%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ADV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -54.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 55.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ADV — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2026, Advantage Solutions Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. On August 5, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET, the Company will host a conference call announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A cop…
Why it matters: Better margins mean the company is managing costs and performance well.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is over 8.5% in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is under 8.5% in Q3.
Why it matters: Achieving $250-$275M in unlevered free cash flow is key for financial health.
Supportive ifReported unlevered free cash flow meets or exceeds $250 million.
Worry ifUnlevered free cash flow falls below $250 million.
Why it matters: Strong growth here means good demand and execution. This can boost total revenue.
Supportive ifExperiential Services revenue grows more than 15% each year.
Worry ifExperiential Services revenue growth drops below 10% each year.
Why it matters: Reaffirming revenue guidance shows the company is on track. It can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement says revenue guidance for 2026 is still the same. This will be shared in the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement lowers 2026 revenue guidance in the next earnings call.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$297 on $10,000 · ±3.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $933 loss on $10,000 · 9.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,441 loss on $10,000 · 74.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Stable revenue growth helps keep investors confident during tough times.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth below 1.8% year over year would indicate further weakness.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth is over 1.8% from last year. This shows recovery.
Why it matters: A bigger drop would mean worse profit trends. This would hurt cash flow.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA down year over year worse than -10%.
Less concerning ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA declines less than 10% YoY or grows.
Why it matters: This report will reveal if the company can recover from the recent earnings miss. It is crucial for future guidance.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth and meets or beats analyst expectations.
Also watch forEarnings report shows more revenue decline or does not meet analyst expectations.
Why it matters: Achieving $250-$275M in free cash flow is key for the company's financial health in 2026.
Supportive ifManagement updates guidance. Unlevered free cash flow is on track to meet the goal.
Worry ifManagement revises down the free cash flow target below $250M.
Why it matters: Growth in revenue for the sector may mean a recovery for Advantage Solutions.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth shows a positive change after being negative.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is still negative, which means it is still declining.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth would back management's guidance. It shows business momentum.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth is over 5% year over year. This confirms positive business trends.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is below 0%. This shows continued weakness.
Why it matters: Capex guidance of $50 to $60 million is important for future growth and cash flow.
Watch forManagement confirms capex guidance. It stays within the $50 to $60 million range.
Also watch forManagement lowers capex guidance. It is now below $50 million.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows better cash flow despite profit pressures.
Supportive ifAchieve unlevered free cash flow of $250 million or more in 2026.
Worry ifUnlevered free cash flow falls below $250 million in 2026.
Why it matters: A continued drop in this area could hurt overall profits and growth.
Worry ifBranded Services revenue declines more than 20% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifBranded Services revenue growth stays steady or gets better in Q3.
Why it matters: Higher capex may mean aggressive growth plans or problems in operations.
Watch forCapex spending exceeds $60 million in 2026.
Also watch forCapex spending remains below $50 million in 2026.