Advantage Solutions, Inc. (ADV)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$32.16-18.93%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ADV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -76.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 77.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
ADV — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 4, 2026, Advantage Solutions Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. On November 4, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET, the Company will host a conference call announcing its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30,…
Why it matters: Q2 revenue grew 1.8%, but adjusted EBITDA fell 12.2%. Q3 results will test whether profit pressure eases.
Watch forQ3 revenue grows year over year and adjusted EBITDA falls less than 12.2%, or rises.
Also watch forQ3 revenue falls year over year, or adjusted EBITDA falls 12.2% or more.
Why it matters: Branded Services revenue fell 20.1% in Q2, and its adjusted EBITDA fell 36%. A smaller decline would ease pressure on company results.
Supportive ifBranded Services revenue falls less than 20.1% year over year in a reported quarter, or grows.
Worry ifBranded Services revenue falls 20.1% or more year over year in a reported quarter.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$228 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $957 loss on $10,000 · 9.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,257 loss on $10,000 · 62.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.