Ameren (AEE)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-09-04
$106.47+0.06%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AEE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 3.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 31 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AEE — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-24
Other Events. On August 24, 2026, Ameren Illinois Company (“Ameren Illinois”), a subsidiary of Ameren Corporation, sold $400 million principal amount of its 5.50% First Mortgage Bonds due 2036 (the “Bonds”). The Bonds were offered pursuant to a Registration Statement on Form S-3 (File No. 333-297949-01), which became effective on August 4, 2026, and a Prospectus Supplement dated August 17, 2026, to a Prospectus dated August 4, 2026. Ameren Illinois received net offering proceeds of approximat…
Why it matters: New debt can change how money is spent and affect financial health. It shows how Ameren will pay for its projects.
Watch forAnnouncement of new debt to pay for infrastructure projects.
Also watch forNo new debt issuance announced despite ongoing capital needs.
Why it matters: The results of these appeals may affect how Ameren recovers costs and makes money.
Worry ifGood rulings from the Illinois Appellate Court about MYRP appeals.
Less concerning ifBad rulings that hurt cost recovery methods.
Why it matters: Issuing debt shows Ameren wants to fund growth. This affects future spending and financial health.
Supportive ifAmeren is taking on new debt. This will help with over $500 million in spending.
Worry ifAmeren fails to issue planned debt or cancels existing debt offerings.
Why it matters: Keeping guidance shows they believe they can meet earnings. It shows their operations are stable.
Supportive ifManagement reaffirms 2026 EPS guidance range of $5.25 to $5.45 per share.
Worry ifManagement revises down the 2026 EPS guidance below $5.25 per share.
Why it matters: The outcome of the appeal could impact cost recovery and earnings potential.
Watch forA good decision on the appeal helps with cost recovery.
Also watch forA bad ruling makes it hard for Ameren to recover costs.
Why it matters: Electric retail sales affect revenue. Weather changes can greatly impact demand and earnings.
Watch forElectric retail sales are up compared to last year. This is despite changes in the weather.
Also watch forElectric retail sales fell year over year due to bad weather.
Why it matters: Big investments can help future growth. They also make the system more reliable.
Supportive ifThere will be news about investments over $1 billion.
Worry ifThere is no news about investments over $1 billion.
Why it matters: Infrastructure investments are key for reliability and growth. They help future earnings.
Supportive ifThey announced new infrastructure projects worth more than $1 billion.
Worry ifNo new infrastructure projects or delays in current projects.
Why it matters: Reaffirming the EPS guidance signals confidence in earnings stability. It shows the company is on track with its financial goals.
Supportive ifAmeren reaffirms its 2026 EPS guidance range of $5.25 to $5.45 per diluted share.
Worry ifAmeren revises its 2026 EPS guidance downward from the current range.
Why it matters: New debt issuance can impact Ameren's ability to fund infrastructure projects. It shows how well the company is managing its capital needs.
Watch forA new debt issue over $500 million for projects has been announced.
Also watch forNo new debt issuance or issuance below $400 million.
Why it matters: If Ameren meets or beats this EPS target, it shows they can meet their 2026 goals.
Supportive ifQ3 diluted EPS reported at or above $1.20.
Worry ifQ3 diluted EPS reported below $1.20.
Why it matters: A bigger debt issuance means more money for infrastructure. This helps the company grow.
Supportive ifThey announced a debt issuance of over $500 million.
Worry ifNo debt issuance or issuance below $500 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$86 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $181 loss on $10,000 · 1.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,051 loss on $10,000 · 10.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.