AEE
AmerenNYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, AEE has a composite score of 16.5 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 75.5 and reflects a moderate risk label. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as rates, labor, inflation, and growth, with the sector trend currently at -0.7. The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.89
- Slope (norm)-0.23
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.11 → $1.08 (-3.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 53% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 9.0% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
12 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Affirm 2026 EPS guidancegrowthbehind14% progress
2/11: “Earnings Guidance Range for 2026 Affirmed at $5.25 to $5.45 per Diluted Share.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Ameren has consistently reaffirmed its 2026 EPS guidance range of $5.25 to $5.45 per share. Despite the affirmation, the financials show a net income of -$99.1 million in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards achieving the guidance.
- 2.Debt issuance for capital allocationcapital allocationmixed44% progress
3/4: “Ameren sold $400 million principal amount of its 5.00% Senior Notes due 2036.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Ameren issued $400 million in Senior Notes in 2026-Q1 and $450 million in Bonds in 2025-Q4, supporting its capital allocation strategy. However, operating income was negative at -$99.1 million in 2026-Q1, indicating financial strain despite the capital influx.
- 3.Leadership transitiontalentmixed65% progress
2/9: “Timothy S. Rausch was elected to the Board, with a term beginning on March 1, 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Ameren has been actively managing leadership transitions, with new board appointments in 2026-Q1 and 2025-Q4. These changes are part of its strategy to strengthen governance, though the financial impact remains to be seen as net income was negative at -$99.1 million in 2026-Q1.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 17%; 252d 15%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −8%. Bad day move −1%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLU) — 0.05 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 75/100, drawdown 84/100, beta 5/100, earnings vol —.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Affirm 2026 EPS guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Ameren has consistently reaffirmed its 2026 earnings guidance range of $5.25 to $5.45 per share.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Ameren has consistently reaffirmed its 2026 EPS guidance range of $5.25 to $5.45 per share. Despite the affirmation, the financials show a net income of -$99.1 million in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards achieving the guidance.
14%CEO/CFO:“Earnings Guidance Range for 2026 Affirmed at $5.25 to $5.45 per Diluted Share.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-11Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Earnings Guidance Range for 2026 Affirmed at $5.25 to $5.45 per Diluted Share.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“2026 Diluted EPS Guidance Range Established at $5.25 to $5.45.”
- 2025-Q2Press release
“2026 diluted EPS to be in the range of $5.25 to $5.45.”
- #2
Debt issuance for capital allocation
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Ameren has been actively issuing debt to support its capital allocation strategy.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Ameren issued $400 million in Senior Notes in 2026-Q1 and $450 million in Bonds in 2025-Q4, supporting its capital allocation strategy. However, operating income was negative at -$99.1 million in 2026-Q1, indicating financial strain despite the capital influx.
44%CEO/CFO:“Ameren sold $400 million principal amount of its 5.00% Senior Notes due 2036.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-03-04Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Ameren sold $400 million principal amount of its 5.00% Senior Notes due 2036.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Union Electric Company sold $450 million principal amount of its 4.80% First Mortgage Bonds due 2036.”
- #3
Leadership transition
TalentNew since 2026-05-04Ameren is undergoing leadership transitions with new appointments to its board and committees.
Watch →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Ameren has been actively managing leadership transitions, with new board appointments in 2026-Q1 and 2025-Q4. These changes are part of its strategy to strengthen governance, though the financial impact remains to be seen as net income was negative at -$99.1 million in 2026-Q1.
65%CEO/CFO:“Timothy S. Rausch was elected to the Board, with a term beginning on March 1, 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-09Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Timothy S. Rausch was elected to the Board, with a term beginning on March 1, 2026.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Jamie L. Engstrom was elected to the Board, with a term beginning on January 1, 2026.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
P/E over the last 5 years
0 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AEE Ameren | +17 | fair | moderate |
NEE NextEra Energy | +19 | full | moderate |
CEG Constellation Energy | +16 | full | elevated |
SO Southern Company | +19 | fair | moderate |
DUK Duke Energy | +28 | inexpensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If utilities sector trend rises from -0.04 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If utilities sector trend falls from -0.04 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-054d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Ameren Corporation (“Ameren”) issued a press release announcing its earnings for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2026. The press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subje…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 60 - 2026-03-042mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On March 4, 2026, Ameren Corporation (“Ameren”) sold $400 million principal amount of its 5.00% Senior Notes due 2036 (the “Notes”). The Notes were offered pursuant to a Registration Statement on Form S-3 (File No. 333-274977), which became effective on October 13, 2023, and a Prospectus Supplement dated February 26, 2026, to a Prospectus dated October 13, 2023. Ameren received net offering proceeds of approximately $396.6 million, before expenses, upon closing of the transactio…
capital allocationneutralscore 12 - 2026-02-272mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On February 27, 2026, Union Electric Company, doing business as Ameren Missouri (“Ameren Missouri”), a subsidiary of Ameren Corporation, sold $450 million principal amount of its 4.80% First Mortgage Bonds due 2036 (the “2036 Bonds”) and $450 million principal amount of its 5.55% First Mortgage Bonds due 2056 (the “2056 Bonds”, and together with the 2036 Bonds, the “Bonds”). The Bonds were offered pursuant to a Registration Statement on Form S-3 (File No. 333-274977-02), which b…
capital allocationneutralscore 10 - 2026-02-112mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 11, 2026, Ameren Corporation (“Ameren”) issued a press release announcing its earnings for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025, and providing earnings guidance. The press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, a…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 10 - 2026-02-092mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (d) On February 6, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Ameren Corporation ("Ameren") elected Timothy S. Rausch to the Board, with a term beginning on March 1, 2026, and expiring at Ameren's Annual Meeting of Shareholders in 2026. Also effective March 1, 2026, the Board appointed Mr. Rausch to the Finance Committee and the Nuclear, Operati…
executive changeneutralscore 7
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.