AES Corporation (AES)
NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-07-08
$14.63+0.07%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $14.63. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $15 AES trades at 4.9× p/e, below its 24× p/e peer median. Our $34 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ddm gordon | 12M | $2.72 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $29.62 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $37.36 | 24.3 | 1.54 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $72.28 | 24.3 | 2.98 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $53.04 |
| 3.0 |
| 17.46 |
| TTM |
| high |
| residual income | 12M | $20.76 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $17.04 | 5.7 | 2.98 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $75.79 | 24.3 | 3.12 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $23.69 | 24.3 | 0.98 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $45.84 | 24.3 | 1.89 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $61.76 | 3.0 | 20.34 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $10.81 | 5.7 | 1.89 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $17.49 | 24.3 | 0.72 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $33.83 | 24.3 | 1.39 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $68.21 | 3.0 | 22.46 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $7.98 | 5.7 | 1.39 | Analyst | medium |