AES Corporation (AES)
NYSEUtilitiesDiversified UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$14.90-0.13%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesDiversified UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AES
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -51.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 49.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AES — COO transition
Dated 2026-09-16
Executive Vice President — Bernerd Da Santos: The Executive Vice President and President of US & Renewables is departing to join a competitor, which constitutes a genuine loss of a senior executive, though the transition appears orderly with severance.
Why it matters: AES reported 2.9 GW in operation by 2025-Q3. The year-end figure tests progress toward its stated goal.
Supportive ifAES reports at least 3.2 GW of new renewable projects in operation during 2025.
Worry ifAES reports less than 3.2 GW in operation for 2025 or says the goal was delayed.
Why it matters: AES kept its 2025 adjusted EBITDA range at $2.65B to $2.85B. The report can show whether results reached it.
Watch forThe next earnings release reports 2025 adjusted EBITDA of at least $2.65B and no below-range result.
Also watch forThe next earnings release reports 2025 adjusted EBITDA below $2.65B or states that the range was missed.
Why it matters: New power deals support AES's clean energy growth plan. Its reported backlog was about 11–12 GW.
Supportive ifAES reports 14–17 GW of PPAs signed across 2023–2025.
Worry ifAES reports less than 14 GW signed across 2023–2025 or lowers the stated range.
Why it matters: The deal sets a $15 cash payment per share. Closing would take AES off the public market.
Supportive ifA closing notice confirms the consortium acquired AES. Stockholders are due a $15 per-share cash payment.
Worry ifThe merger agreement ends, the deal does not close by early 2027, or the stated cash payment changes.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$14 on $10,000 · ±0.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $153 loss on $10,000 · 1.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,898 loss on $10,000 · 19.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Stockholders approved the deal, but regulators must still clear it. Closing would end AES stock trading.
Supportive ifAES says it has all required federal, state, and foreign approvals. Closing remains planned for late 2026 or early 2027.
Worry ifAES or the consortium reports a denied approval, a material delay, or a change to the merger terms.