AES Corporation (AES)
NYSEUtilitiesDiversified UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.79+0.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesDiversified UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AES
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -49.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 52.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AES — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-05
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 5, 2026, The AES Corporation (the “Company” or “AES”) entered into (i) Amendment No. 3 to the Credit Agreement (the “Citi Third Amendment”), by and among the Company, the lenders party thereto and Citibank, N.A., as administrative agent, which amends that certain Eighth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of September 24, 2021, by and among the Company, as borrower, the lenders from time to time party thereto and Citibank, N.A.…
Why it matters: Court results could change the merger's timeline and AES's work.
Worry ifCourt cases end well, so the merger can go ahead on time.
Less concerning ifCourt cases cause delays or problems for the merger.
Why it matters: Reaffirming guidance shows AES is on track for financial targets. It signals stability and growth potential.
Supportive ifAES reaffirms its 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance in the next earnings report.
Worry ifAES lowers its 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Stockholder approval is crucial for the acquisition to proceed. A strong vote indicates confidence in AES's future.
Supportive ifAt least 95% of stockholders vote in favor of the acquisition.
Worry ifFewer than 75% of stockholders vote yes, showing strong opposition.
Why it matters: Approvals are needed for the acquisition to move forward. Delays may hurt AES's growth.
Worry ifAll needed approvals are received on time.
Less concerning ifApprovals are delayed or not granted.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$14 on $10,000 · ±0.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $194 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,898 loss on $10,000 · 19.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The PPA is crucial for the Maritza plant's future revenue. Success here supports AES's growth strategy.
Watch forAES successfully negotiates a new PPA for the Maritza plant.
Also watch forNegotiations fail, and AES does not secure a new PPA for the Maritza plant.
Why it matters: This acquisition will give AES more capital to invest in clean energy projects. It is key for AES's growth strategy.
Supportive ifThe acquisition closes in late 2026 or early 2027 as planned.
Worry ifThe acquisition is delayed beyond early 2027 or fails to close.
Why it matters: The buyback can signal management's confidence in AES's value. It may also affect share price.
Supportive ifAES's share price goes up after the buyback announcement.
Worry ifAES's share price declines despite the buyback announcement.
Why it matters: The acquisition will give AES more financial flexibility to grow. This is key for future investments.
Supportive ifThe deal closes on time. There are no regulatory delays or shareholder objections.
Worry ifThere are delays in closing. This is due to regulatory issues or shareholder dissent.
Why it matters: Securing a new PPA is crucial for the Maritza plant's profitability. It impacts AES's overall revenue.
Supportive ifAES announces a signed new PPA for the Maritza plant.
Worry ifAES fails to secure a new PPA for the Maritza plant.
Why it matters: The acquisition will give AES more capital to grow and invest in clean energy. If it closes, AES can accelerate its growth strategy.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close by early 2027. All regulatory approvals are in place.
Worry ifThe acquisition is delayed past early 2027. It may not get the needed approvals.
Why it matters: Adding renewable projects is key to AES's growth strategy. Meeting this goal shows strong execution.
Supportive ifAES announces completion of the full 3.2 GW target by the end of 2025.
Worry ifAES fails to reach at least 3.2 GW of new renewable projects by the end of 2025.
Why it matters: Signing PPAs is crucial for revenue stability. Meeting this target indicates strong market demand.
Supportive ifAES announces signing of 14-17 GW of PPAs by the end of 2025.
Worry ifAES signs fewer than 14 GW of PPAs by the end of 2025.
Why it matters: The dividend payment reflects AES's financial health. Changes could signal issues with cash flow.
Worry ifAES maintains the quarterly dividend payment of $0.17595 per share.
Less concerning ifAES cuts or stops the quarterly dividend payment.