Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
AES Corporation (AES)
NYSEUtilitiesDiversified UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$14.89-0.07%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesDiversified UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.42 → 2.43 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AES yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Reaffirm 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2,650 to $2,850 million | A primary condition in AES Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is $2.65B to $2.85B Adjusted EBITDA in 2025. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $2.65 billion in 2025 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AES is a utility and renewable-project growth story, with a multi-year thesis tied to project delivery and contracted power sales. The thesis is in watch status: several operating goals are on track, but recent financial performance remains weak compared with its industry group.
The valuation evidence describes AES as cheap versus peers, while the market’s expectations gap is negative. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the snapshot does not point to unusually fragile expectations.
Near term, a recent quarterly miss and erratic earnings surprises temper the otherwise low assessed miss risk. Management has reaffirmed its 2025 earnings guidance, and quarterly adjusted EBITDA rose from the second to the third quarter of 2025. Renewable project additions and power-purchase agreement targets are also on track, though recent financial performance remains below the industry group.
The multi-year view depends on AES continuing to deliver renewable projects, sign power-purchase agreements, and meet its reaffirmed guidance. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while lower interest rates or stronger results and guidance from utility peers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next one to three years, AES combines a cheap-versus-peers valuation with credible progress on stated goals, but weak recent results and volatile management execution remain important checks. The thesis depends on that execution translating into sustained financial performance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 6 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Guidance and Expectations 4,6 The Company is reaffirming its 2025 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA 4 of $2,650 to $2,850 million.” “The Company is reaffirming its expectation that 2025 Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes 7,8 of $3,950 to $4,350 million.”
Stable and effective management execution | A supporting condition in AES Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or improve current execution scores. | Intact | Significant management instability or failure to meet goals | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sign 14-17 GW of Power Purchase Agreements from 2023 to 2025 | A primary condition in AES Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is 14-17 GW signed by end of 2025. | Improving | PPA signings fall below 14 GW by end 2025 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 6 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We currently have an 11.1 GW backlog of signed Power Purchase Agreements, including 4 GW with hyperscaler customers, and the large majority of which will come online within the next three years," said Andrés Gluski, AES President and Chief Executive Officer.” “Year-to-date, the Company: ◦ Completed the construction of 2.9 GW of solar, energy storage and wind, and is on track to add a total of 3.2 GW to its operating portfolio by year-end 2025; and ◦ Signed or was awarded new long-term PPAs for 2.2 GW of renewables.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Add 3.2 GW of new renewable projects in operation in 2025 | AES is growing with new renewable projects. | Intact | New projects added fall below 3.2 GW in 2025 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 6 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Year-to-date, the Company: ◦ Completed the construction of 2.9 GW of solar, energy storage and wind, and is on track to add a total of 3.2 GW to its operating portfolio by year-end 2025; and ◦ Signed or was awarded new long-term PPAs for 2.2 GW of renewables.” “"Adjusted EBITDA from our Renewables SBU is up nearly 50% year-to-date primarily as a result of the 3 GW we brought online since third quarter 2024.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.38 → $2.43 · observed estimates
$13.44B → $13.24B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.38 | $13,440,759,960 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.38 | $13,440,759,960 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.38 | $13,440,759,960 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.38 | $13,440,759,960 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.38 | $13,440,759,960 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.38 | $13,440,759,960 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.38 | $13,440,759,960 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.47 | $15,961,306,796 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.38 | $13,440,759,960 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.38 | $13,437,926,620 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.38 | $13,437,926,620 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.38 | $13,437,926,620 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.38 | $13,437,926,620 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.38 | $13,437,926,620 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.38 | $13,437,926,620 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.38 | $13,437,926,620 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.38 | $13,437,926,620 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.38 | $13,437,926,620 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.38 | $13,437,926,620 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.38 | $13,437,926,620 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.38 | $13,437,926,620 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.47 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.47 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.47 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.47 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.47 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.47 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.47 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.42 | $13,500,153,398 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.43 | $13,240,435,599 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.43 | $13,240,435,599 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.46 | $11,880,000,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.46 | $11,880,000,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.46 | $11,880,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.46 | $11,880,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.46 | $11,880,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.46 | $11,880,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.46 | $11,880,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.46 | $11,880,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.46 | $11,880,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.46 | $11,880,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.46 | $11,880,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.46 | $11,880,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.46 | $11,880,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.43 | $13,240,435,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.43 | $13,240,435,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.43 | $13,240,435,599 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.43 | $13,240,435,599 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.43 | $13,240,435,599 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.43 | $13,240,435,599 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.43 | $13,240,435,599 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.43 | $13,240,435,599 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.43 | $13,240,435,599 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.43 | $13,240,435,599 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.43 | $13,240,435,599 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.43 | $13,240,435,599 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.43 | $13,240,435,599 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.43 | $13,240,435,599 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.