AES Corporation (AES)
NYSEUtilitiesDiversified UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.79+0.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesDiversified UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
AES is growing with new renewable projects. It aims to add 3.2 GW in 2025. Power deals backlog is strong at 11.1 GW. Profit improved from a loss to $242 million in early 2026.
AES faces risks from expiring power contracts. Legal and capital issues could hurt profits. Management changes add uncertainty.
The price is about 57% below our fair value near $34. Analysts expect 5% revenue growth. We see value given AES’s growth and profit gains.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $2.65 billion in 2025
Breaks if: Significant management instability or failure to meet goals
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a long-term thesis on a utility company with a focus on renewable energy. The current state reflects a mix of robust earnings quality but volatile management, alongside weak recent financial performance.
The market appears to have priced in a cheap valuation compared to peers, with expectations that are somewhat lower than what the company has been guiding. There is a low fragility tier, indicating that the current pricing does not reflect extreme market turbulence.
Management is on track with key priorities, including adding renewable projects and signing power purchase agreements. However, recent financial performance has been weak, which could pose risks in the near term.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, which could benefit utility stocks. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers and any changes in guidance from AES will be critical to watch.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified that would weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: PPA signings fall below 14 GW by end 2025
Breaks if: New projects added fall below 3.2 GW in 2025
Over the next one to three years, AES's performance will depend on its ability to execute on its renewable goals and navigate sector challenges. Not investment advice.