Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Advanced Flower Capital Inc (AFCG)
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.99-6.27%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.74 → 0.74 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AFCG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Effective capital management through credit agreements | A supporting condition in Advanced Flower Capital Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or improve credit agreements. | Improving | Material negative credit agreement events occur | Qualitative: Tenth Amendment executed, revolver commitments increased AFCG amended its loan agreement in Sept 2026, increasing revolver commitments, reinforcing effective capital management. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk financial company with a weak recent record, not a proven durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is on watch: the signal recently improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but performance remains well below its industry cohort.
AFCG is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, meaning the market’s assumptions appear demanding relative to the model’s view. The evidence rates this pricing as justified and fragility as low, but confidence is medium and does not remove the business risks.
Near term, erratic earnings and a 47% estimated chance of missing the next result make performance uncertain. Management paid the stated quarterly dividend in the first two quarters of 2026, and the conversion to a BDC appears complete, though the dividend commitment remains on watch. Recent disclosures include a capital-allocation obligation and a share buyback announcement; their longer-term effect is not clear from the evidence.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from financial-sector bellwethers could support sector momentum. The evidence also flags rate cuts from the current 3.88% as a risk for financial companies. Whether AFCG can improve execution and sustain its dividend remains central to the multi-year view.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on stronger execution amid weak recent results and elevated risk; the improved signal is not yet enough to establish a durable recovery. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain dividend payments near $0.05 per share in 2026-Q1 | It keeps paying dividends, $0.05 per share in Q1 2026. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.03 in 2026-Q1 | Dividend per share: $0.05 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.05 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 13, 20260.05 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue per share at or above $1.75 in Q3 2026 | It keeps paying dividends, $0.05 per share in Q1 2026. | Intact | Revenue per share falls below $1.5 in Q3 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.00 → $0.74 · observed estimates
$0.04B → $0.04B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.00 | $41,178,050 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.00 | $41,178,050 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.00 | $41,178,050 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.00 | $41,178,050 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.00 | $41,178,050 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.00 | $41,178,041 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.00 | $41,178,041 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.90 | $34,067,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.90 | $34,067,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.90 | $34,067,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.90 | $34,067,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.90 | $34,067,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.90 | $34,067,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.90 | $34,067,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.90 | $34,067,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.90 | $34,067,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.90 | $34,067,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.90 | $34,067,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.90 | $34,067,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.90 | $34,067,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.00 | $41,178,041 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.00 | $41,178,041 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.00 | $41,178,041 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.00 | $41,178,041 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.00 | $41,178,041 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.00 | $41,178,041 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.00 | $41,178,041 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.00 | $41,178,041 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.74 | $35,315,733 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.