Advanced Flower Capital Inc (AFCG)
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.57-1.38%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AFCG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -50.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 21.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 72.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 35 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AFCG — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-30
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Amendment to Loan and Security Agreement On June 26, 2026, Advanced Flower Capital Inc., a Maryland corporation (the “Company”), entered into Amendment Number Nine to the Loan and Security Agreement (the “Ninth Amendment”), dated as of April 29, 2022 (as amended, supplemented or otherwise modified from time to time, including by the Ninth Amendment), by and among the Company, as borrower, the lenders party thereto and the lead arranger, bookrunner an…
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can change how much it costs to borrow money. They also affect how easy it is to get credit for AFCG.
Watch forFOMC decision lowers interest rates. This helps credit agreements.
Also watch forFOMC decision raises interest rates. This hurts credit agreements.
Why it matters: Finishing the conversion is important for following the rules. It affects future work.
Supportive ifManagement confirms the conversion is completed by the end of Q1 2026.
Worry ifManagement says the conversion will take longer than Q1 2026.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how well the company is doing. It will show its financial health and how it operates.
Watch forThe earnings report shows a profit. It may also show better results than expected.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows a loss. It may also show worse results than expected.
Why it matters: Changes in net asset value per share show the company's financial health.
Watch forNet asset value per share increases above $7.90.
Also watch forNet asset value per share decreases below $7.90.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$175 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $621 loss on $10,000 · 6.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,485 loss on $10,000 · 54.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Hitting the cap would show strong commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company bought back $5 million worth of shares.
Worry ifRepurchases slow down significantly or do not reach the $5 million cap.
Why it matters: An increase in this ratio could signal higher financial risk. This may concern investors about future growth.
Worry ifThe net debt-to-equity ratio was more than 0.48x.
Less concerning ifNet debt-to-equity ratio was at or below 0.48x.
Why it matters: A drop in total investment income may mean less revenue generation.
Worry ifThe total investment income was less than $8 million.
Less concerning ifTotal investment income is still above $8 million.
Why it matters: A drop below 15% would signal a slowdown in the sector's growth phase. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains at or above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could indicate sector weakness. It may impact investor sentiment.
Worry ifThe company reports revenue growth below the median of its peers.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median of its peers.
Why it matters: Earnings reports show how well the company is doing and what to expect next.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth exceeding 15% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in net investment income may show weaker financial performance. This could hurt dividend payments.
Worry ifNet investment income reported below $3 million for Q3.
Less concerning ifNet investment income remains above $3 million for Q3.
Why it matters: A decline in NAV could indicate asset value deterioration. This may impact investor confidence.
Worry ifNAV per share reported below $8.00 in Q3.
Less concerning ifNAV per share stays above $8.00 in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial stability. Missing a payment may raise cash flow concerns.
Watch forA quarterly dividend payment of $0.05 per share is made in Q3.
Also watch forNo dividend payment is made in Q3.