Advanced Flower Capital Inc (AFCG)
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.99-6.27%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AFCG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -55.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 24.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 80.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 24 industry peers
AFCG — credit agreement
Dated 2026-09-29
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Amendment to Loan and Security Agreement On September 25, 2026, Advanced Flower Capital Inc., a Maryland corporation (the “Company”), entered into Amendment Number Ten to the Loan and Security Agreement (the “Tenth Amendment”), dated as of April 29, 2022 (as amended, supplemented or otherwise modified from time to time, including by the Tenth Amendment), by and among the Company, as a borrower, the other borrowers party thereto, the lenders party the…
Why it matters: Q2 NAV rose to $8.25, helped by a $1.9 million net unrealized gain. Lower marks could erase that gain.
Watch forQ3 NAV per share rises above $8.25, with a net unrealized gain on investments.
Also watch forQ3 NAV per share falls below $8.25, with a net unrealized loss on investments.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$139 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $579 loss on $10,000 · 5.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,062 loss on $10,000 · 40.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.