Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Agenus Inc (AGEN)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.44-7.60%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AGEN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Stable management and execution | A supporting condition in Agenus Inc's published investment case. The stated target is No major negative management events. | Intact | New major management departures or legal rulings against company | No major negative management events News shows clinical progress and loan extension. Executive change event was neutral (stock award). No trip conditions met. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk clinical development story, not an established earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent financial performance relatively strong for its industry, but earnings remain loss-making and management execution is volatile.
The valuation evidence describes AGEN as cheap versus peers, though model confidence is low and the expectations gap is negative. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with no fragility concerns flagged; the evidence does not specify exactly what market expectations assume.
Over the multi-year view, fundamentals hinge on advancing BOT+BAL and the Phase 3 ROBBIN trial, while recent financing has added capital and manufacturing capacity. Near term, an earnings miss risk is elevated, following a reported miss, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback. Cash was $35 million at 2026-Q1, so funding and execution remain important risks despite the financing actions.
The thesis depends on clinical and regulatory progress for BOT+BAL, including the planned ROBBIN trial start and first patient dosing expected in Q1 2027. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data could weigh on near-term results and sector conditions. Continued strength from healthcare bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, but would not resolve AGEN’s company-specific clinical and funding risks.
For the next 1 to 3 years, AGEN presents an intact but fragile long-term thesis: progress and financing are constructive, while losses, execution uncertainty, and elevated near-term miss risk remain substantial. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Net income rose to $39.2M in Q1 2026. |
| Broken |
| net income falls below $0 in any quarter after 2026-Q1 |
Net income: $-567,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $39.2M net income. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 2026-567,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Improve operating income | The company improved operating income to $15.1M in Q1 2026. | Improving | operating income falls below $14.4M in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Operating income: $11.293M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $15.1M operating income. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 202611,293,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase revenue | A primary condition in Agenus Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $49.8M revenue. | Broken | revenue falls below $33.7M in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Revenue unavailable in the latest segment data Last available Revenue revenue: $238,000 in FY2024-Q1. Latest source period is FY2026-Q2; a broader segment cannot substitute for this measure. May 7, 2024Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.16 → $-0.60 · observed estimates
$0.14B → $0.12B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.16 | $137,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.16 | $137,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.16 | $137,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.16 | $137,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.16 | $131,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.16 | $131,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.16 | $131,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.16 | $131,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.16 | $131,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.06 | $137,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.06 | $137,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.11 | $137,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.06 | $137,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.06 | $137,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.06 | $137,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.06 | $137,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.06 | $137,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.11 | $137,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.06 | $137,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.06 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.06 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.11 | $137,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.11 | $137,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.11 | $137,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.11 | $137,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.11 | $137,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.11 | $137,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.11 | $137,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.24 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.24 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.24 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.24 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.24 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.24 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.24 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.24 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.24 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.24 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.24 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.24 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.24 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.24 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.24 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.24 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.24 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.24 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.24 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.24 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.24 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.24 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.24 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.24 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.24 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.24 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.24 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.24 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.24 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.24 | $137,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.46 | $115,400,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.46 | $115,400,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.46 | $115,400,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.46 | $115,400,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.46 | $115,400,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.47 | $115,966,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.47 | $115,966,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.47 | $115,966,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.47 | $115,966,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.60 | $115,837,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.60 | $115,837,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.60 | $115,837,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.60 | $115,837,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.60 | $115,837,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.60 | $115,837,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.60 | $115,850,000 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.