Agenus Inc (AGEN)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.44-7.60%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AGEN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -83.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -11.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 72.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
AGEN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
and in Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: The 60-patient mark is a stated trial step and a key term in the Series A warrants.
Supportive ifAgenus reports that at least 60 patients have received BOT+BAL in ROBBIN.
Worry ifAgenus reports a pause or delay in enrollment. Fewer than 60 patients had been treated by the reported trial update.
Why it matters: More access sales would show continued demand and bring in product revenue while the trial advances.
Supportive ifQuarterly BOT+BAL access revenue exceeds the Q2 2026 level of $6.4 million.
Worry ifQuarterly BOT+BAL access revenue falls below $6.4 million, reversing the rise from $4.6 million in Q1.
Why it matters: The August loan change and new debts may affect cash for ROBBIN and company operations.
Watch forAgenus files terms showing more time to repay or lower near-term cash payments under the loan.
Also watch forAgenus files loan terms that show earlier repayment, higher payments, or a default.
Why it matters: Starting the trial on time would show that Agenus is turning its new funding into its main study.
Supportive ifAgenus reports that the first ROBBIN patient received treatment by March 31, 2027.
Worry ifAgenus reports a delay beyond Q1 2027 or does not report a first dose by March 31, 2027.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$334 on $10,000 · ±3.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $943 loss on $10,000 · 9.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,081 loss on $10,000 · 40.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The upfront placement was said to fund operations through Q3 2027. More time could ease pressure to raise funds.
Supportive ifAgenus says it has enough cash and committed funding to run operations past Q3 2027. This excludes any warrant exercise.
Worry ifAgenus reports that cash may not cover operations through Q3 2027. It may also announce a need for new funding before then.
Why it matters: These results will test early tumor response in the Phase 3 trial, beyond the smaller earlier studies.
Watch forAgenus reports interim response data for at least 50 ROBBIN patients. Some have deep responses, such as MPR or pCR.
Also watch forInterim data show response rates far below those in earlier studies. About 40% had MPR and 30% had pCR in those studies.