Agenus Inc (AGEN)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$8.240.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AGEN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -81.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 83.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AGEN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
and in Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: The court case outcome could change how people see the company. It may also impact its finances.
Worry ifA court ruling that favors the plaintiffs in the securities class action.
Less concerning ifA court ruling that dismisses the case or favors Agenus.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for long-term success. A rebound would show positive momentum.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth stabilizes or improves from $33.7M in Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 revenue declines further from $33.7M in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Progress in the Phase 3 trial could boost investor confidence and future revenue potential.
Supportive ifUpdates on the registrational Phase 3 trial for BOT+BAL are provided.
Worry ifNo updates or negative news regarding the Phase 3 trial.
Why it matters: Enrollment updates will show how well Agenus is doing with its clinical plan. Strong enrollment shows interest and possible success.
Supportive ifEnrollment in the BATTMAN trial is going well. We get regular updates.
Worry ifEnrollment stalls or falls short of expectations.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$290 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $773 loss on $10,000 · 7.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,536 loss on $10,000 · 45.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: These papers will show long-term data on BOT+BAL's effectiveness for the ROBBIN trial.
Supportive ifPapers show positive long-term outcomes for BOT+BAL in MSS colon cancer.
Worry ifPapers are delayed or show negative findings that weaken earlier results.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows improved cost control. This can help the company’s finances.
Supportive ifOperating income rises above $15.1M, which was reported in Q1.
Worry ifOperating income drops below $14.4M, showing worse cost control.
Why it matters: Changes in leaders can change company plans and actions. This can affect how investors feel.
Watch forA new Principal Accounting Officer is named and has strong skills.
Also watch forNo new appointment leads to doubt about financial reporting.
Why it matters: More revenue from access programs shows strong demand for BOT+BAL and its market potential.
Supportive ifPre-commercial product revenue from BOT+BAL access programs grows beyond $6.4 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifRevenue from access programs drops or does not grow much.
Why it matters: Achieving positive net income is a key goal. It signals financial health and stability.
Supportive ifQ2 net income is reported as positive, exceeding $39.2M from Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 net income remains negative or falls below $39.2M.
Why it matters: If the company returns to losses, it shows financial health is getting worse.
Worry ifQ2 net income reported below $39.2M, which is the Q1 figure.
Less concerning ifQ2 net income reported above $39.2M.
Why it matters: Rising pre-commercial revenue shows strong demand for BOT+BAL. This helps support more investment.
Supportive ifPre-commercial revenue is over $6.4 million in the next quarters.
Worry ifPre-commercial revenue drops or does not grow much.
Why it matters: Starting the ROBBIN trial is key for testing BOT+BAL in colon cancer. It targets a large patient group with high unmet need.
Supportive ifOfficial announcement of the first patient dosed in the ROBBIN trial.
Worry ifDelay in trial initiation beyond Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Interim data will show how well BOT+BAL works before surgery. Positive results could boost confidence in the treatment.
Supportive ifInterim data shows good results.
Worry ifInterim data shows weak responses or slow reporting.
Why it matters: These studies provide evidence for BOT+BAL's effectiveness. Positive findings could strengthen the case for the ROBBIN trial.
Supportive ifManuscripts show strong long-term results from NEST and UNICORN.
Worry ifManuscripts show disappointing results or are delayed beyond 2026.