Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AGIO)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$28.27-9.91%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AGIO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve over $1 billion in peak global sales | Revenue is expected to grow from about $54 million in 2026 to over $1 billion peak sales. | Improving | no progress toward $1 billion peak sales over next 3 years | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a clinical-stage biotech with an emerging commercial business, not yet a proven profitable compounder. The multi-year view is on watch: launch progress is visible, but financial performance remains below its industry cohort and the evidence snapshot gives medium confidence.
AGIO trades at a sizable premium to peers, which the evidence describes as justified by a durable premium, though valuation-model confidence is low. The negative expectations gap suggests the market's embedded expectations are demanding relative to the model; the low fragility reading does not remove that execution risk.
Near term, AQVESME launch momentum is encouraging: prescriptions and U.S. mitapivat revenue both rose from the first to the second quarter of 2026. AGIO remains loss-making, and research spending increased partly because of a licensing payment; recent earnings beats are positive, but performance is still below the industry cohort. The next key near-term milestone is the FDA decision on mitapivat for sickle cell disease, with a November 1, 2026 date stated in the evidence.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued commercial growth in thalassemia and progress toward a potential sickle cell launch, alongside successful advancement of newer pipeline assets. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while a weakening jobs report could weigh on healthcare sentiment; continued strength among sector bellwethers would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, AGIO’s setup combines improving launch traction and an active pipeline with ongoing losses, elevated risk, and a demanding peer valuation. The thesis remains on watch and hinges on execution and evidence that commercial growth can sustain the premium. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is AQVESME launch proceeds without major setbacks. |
| Improving |
| FDA or market issues delay or limit AQVESME launch |
Qualitative: FDA Priority Review granted (Jul 2026) vs Target: Launch without setbacks FDA granted priority review to mitapivat in July 2026, supporting the AQVESME launch timeline and reinforcing the turnaround thesis. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Improving EPS trend toward break-even | A supporting condition in Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss narrowing from -6.18 in FY26 to less negative in FY27. | Improving | EPS loss worsens or remains flat beyond FY27 | Diluted EPS: $-1.69 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS loss narrowing from -6.18 in FY26 to less negative in FY27. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 30, 2026-1.69 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches at least $54 million in 2026 | A primary condition in Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=54 million USD. | Intact | revenue falls below $54 million in FY26 | Revenue: $44.745M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=54 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 30, 202644,745,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-4.65 → $-3.75 · observed estimates
$0.26B → $0.35B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-4.65 | $263,221,170 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-4.65 | $263,221,170 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-4.65 | $263,221,170 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-4.57 | $262,738,068 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-4.65 | $263,221,170 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-4.54 | $270,071,170 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-4.54 | $270,071,170 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-4.63 | $275,538,240 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-4.63 | $275,538,240 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-4.03 | $329,281,660 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-4.03 | $329,281,660 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-4.03 | $329,281,660 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-4.02 | $330,153,490 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-4.02 | $330,153,490 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-4.02 | $330,153,490 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-3.86 | $339,849,070 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-3.86 | $339,849,070 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-3.86 | $339,849,070 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-3.86 | $339,849,070 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-3.86 | $339,849,070 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-3.86 | $339,849,070 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-4.02 | $330,153,490 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-4.02 | $330,153,490 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-4.02 | $330,153,490 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-4.02 | $330,153,490 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-4.02 | $330,153,490 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-4.02 | $330,153,490 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-3.69 | $351,509,070 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-3.70 | $350,936,759 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-3.70 | $350,936,759 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-3.70 | $350,936,759 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-3.70 | $350,936,759 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-3.70 | $350,936,759 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-3.70 | $350,936,759 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-3.70 | $350,936,759 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-3.70 | $350,936,759 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-3.70 | $350,936,759 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-3.70 | $350,936,759 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-3.70 | $350,936,759 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-3.70 | $350,936,759 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-3.70 | $350,936,759 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-3.70 | $350,936,759 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-3.70 | $350,936,759 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-3.70 | $350,936,759 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-3.71 | $350,936,759 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-3.74 | $348,036,759 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-3.74 | $348,036,759 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-3.74 | $347,084,782 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-3.74 | $347,084,782 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-3.74 | $347,084,782 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-3.74 | $347,084,782 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-3.74 | $347,084,782 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-3.74 | $347,084,782 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-3.74 | $347,084,782 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-3.74 | $347,084,782 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-3.74 | $347,084,782 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-3.74 | $347,084,782 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-3.74 | $347,084,782 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-3.74 | $347,084,782 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-3.77 | $345,354,782 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-3.77 | $345,354,782 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-3.77 | $345,354,782 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-3.77 | $345,354,782 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-3.77 | $345,354,782 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-3.77 | $345,354,782 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-3.77 | $345,354,782 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-3.75 | $347,424,782 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-3.75 | $347,424,782 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-3.75 | $347,424,782 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-3.75 | $347,424,782 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-3.75 | $347,424,782 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-3.75 | $347,424,782 | 9 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.