Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AGIO)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$33.10-0.09%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AGIO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -22.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 100.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 122.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers
AGIO — officer change
Dated 2026-06-18
The filing is about an amendment to the stock incentive plan, not a management change.
Why it matters: Achieving over $1 billion in peak sales is critical for Agios's long-term growth. It shows market acceptance.
Watch forManagement updated their guidance. They are making progress towards the $1 billion sales target.
Also watch forManagement lowered the peak sales target. It is now below $800 million.
Why it matters: The launch is critical for Agios to grow its revenue. It shows how well the product is received in the market.
Supportive ifThe launch was successful. Initial sales were over $10 million in the first quarter.
Worry ifNo launch announcement or initial sales below $5 million in the first quarter.
Why it matters: Starting this trial is crucial for pipeline advancement. It could lead to new treatment options and revenue.
Supportive ifAG-236 enters Phase 2/3 development as planned in the second half of 2026.
Worry ifAG-236 trial initiation is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: Positive results could show tebapivat's potential. This may help future growth.
Supportive ifThe Phase 2b trial results show that many participants no longer need transfusions.
Worry ifThe results show no clear change in transfusion independence.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$172 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $402 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,089 loss on $10,000 · 50.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The launch could significantly boost Agios's sales and market presence. It is a key part of their growth strategy.
Supportive ifThe launch date was announced. Key opinion leaders gave positive feedback.
Worry ifThere was no launch announcement. Key opinion leaders gave negative feedback.
Why it matters: Higher revenue means mitapivat products are doing well in the market.
Supportive ifIn Q3 2026, revenue from mitapivat products will be over $50 million.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue from mitapivat products stays below $50 million.
Why it matters: If healthcare sector growth speeds up, it may help Agios. A stronger sector can improve investor sentiment.
Supportive ifHealthcare sector revenue growth increases back toward 10% or higher.
Worry ifHealthcare sector revenue growth continues to slow below 10%.
Why it matters: If AQVESME gets over 500 prescriptions, it will show strong demand for thalassemia.
Supportive ifCumulative AQVESME prescriptions exceed 500 by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifCumulative prescriptions remain below 500 by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Starting the Phase 2/3 trial for AG-236 will show progress in Agios's hematology pipeline.
Supportive ifAG-236 Phase 2 trial begins in the second half of 2026.
Worry ifAG-236 trial initiation is delayed beyond 2026.
Why it matters: The FDA's decision on the sNDA will impact Agios's growth potential in sickle cell disease.
Watch forFDA grants approval for mitapivat in sickle cell disease by the PDUFA date of November 1, 2026.
Also watch forFDA rejects the sNDA for mitapivat in sickle cell disease by the PDUFA date.