Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AGIO)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$28.27-9.91%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AGIO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 100.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 101.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
AGIO — officer change
Dated 2026-06-18
The filing is about an amendment to the stock incentive plan, not a management change.
Why it matters: The FDA decision due November 1 can open or block a new use for mitapivat.
Watch forThe FDA approves the sickle cell application on or before its November 1 goal date.
Also watch forThe FDA issues a complete response letter or does not approve the application by November 1.
Why it matters: More prescriptions and sales would show that the U.S. thalassemia launch is gaining ground.
Supportive ifThe next quarterly update shows more than 442 cumulative U.S. prescriptions and U.S. mitapivat revenue above $40.9 million.
Worry ifThe next update shows 442 or fewer cumulative prescriptions, or U.S. mitapivat revenue below $40.9 million.
Why it matters: Early safety data will show whether this new drug can keep moving through testing.
Watch forThe Phase 1b update reports no major safety issue and supports further study in adults with PKU.
Also watch forThe update reports a serious safety issue, or Agios stops or delays the Phase 1b trial.
Why it matters: Starting Phase 3 would show that the new ITP drug has cleared key early steps.
Supportive ifAgios starts the cevidoplenib Phase 3 ITP trial in the first half of 2028.
Worry ifAgios delays the Phase 3 start beyond the first half of 2028 or does not advance the drug.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$166 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $387 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,089 loss on $10,000 · 50.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.