Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
agilon health, Inc. (AGL)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$113.77+18.23%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.75 → 1.73 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AGL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Positive cash from operating activities | Cash from operations turned positive at $24M. | Improving | Cash from operations falls below $0 in any quarter next year | Cash from operations: $-57.297M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $23.7M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 2026-57,297,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AGL is a healthcare business in a recovery phase, with a cyclical backdrop that can affect results. Its long-term thesis is intact, but the signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed, and earnings quality remains loss-making overall.
The evidence labels the valuation as justified, while also indicating that AGL is cheap versus peers; valuation model confidence is low. The negative expectations gap suggests the market may be cautious, but the snapshot does not show a clear valuation cushion or high fragility.
Near-term results show strong progress: revenue and medical margin improved, and full-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised. Operating income and net income turned positive in the latest quarter, but operating cash flow remains negative, and erratic earnings surprises are a risk.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued revenue and margin growth becoming durable profitability and positive operating cash flow. A guidance reversal could damage management credibility, while weaker job growth could weigh on cyclical healthcare names; continued strong results from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, AGL’s operating recovery is encouraging, but the thesis remains mixed until profits and cash generation become more consistent. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating income rose to $4M in Q1. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below $0 in any quarter next year |
Operating income: $24.109M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $4M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 202624,109,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““We are raising our full-year 2026 outlook which reflects stronger burden of illness execution, favorable medical cost trends, and continued operating discipline.” “Williams, Executive Chairman. “We are also strengthening our Total Care Model, expanding clinical pathways, improving quality, and deepening payor alignment, positioning us for more predictable outcomes and sustained margin expansion.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue stabilizes near $5.7B | A primary condition in agilon health, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $5.68B annual revenue. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $5.68B in 2026 | Revenue: $1.519B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.68B annual revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 20261,519,486,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.62 → $1.73 · observed estimates
$6.08B → $6.24B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.62 | $6,079,059,400 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.62 | $6,079,059,400 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.62 | $6,079,059,400 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.94 | $6,079,031,938 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.62 | $6,079,059,400 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.62 | $6,079,059,400 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.62 | $6,079,059,400 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.62 | $6,079,059,400 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.62 | $6,079,059,400 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.03 | $6,079,059,400 | 7 / 16 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.03 | $6,079,059,400 | 7 / 16 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.03 | $6,079,059,400 | 7 / 16 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.03 | $6,079,059,400 | 7 / 16 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.36 | $6,109,461,500 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.56 | $6,179,218,286 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.27 | $6,179,240,030 | 5 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.27 | $6,179,240,030 | 5 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.27 | $6,179,240,030 | 5 / 15 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.27 | $6,194,653,360 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.16 | $6,225,309,680 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.16 | $6,225,309,680 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.56 | $6,179,218,286 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.56 | $6,179,218,286 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.56 | $6,179,218,286 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.56 | $6,179,218,286 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.56 | $6,179,218,286 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.56 | $6,179,218,286 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.56 | $6,179,218,286 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.50 | $6,229,740,790 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.50 | $6,253,865,132 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.69 | $6,242,068,204 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.69 | $6,242,068,204 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.69 | $6,242,068,204 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.69 | $6,242,068,204 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.69 | $6,242,068,204 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.69 | $6,242,068,204 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.69 | $6,242,068,204 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.69 | $6,242,068,204 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.69 | $6,242,068,204 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.69 | $6,242,068,204 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.69 | $6,242,068,204 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.69 | $6,242,068,204 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.69 | $6,242,068,204 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.69 | $6,242,068,204 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.69 | $6,242,068,204 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.69 | $6,242,068,204 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.69 | $6,242,068,204 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.69 | $6,242,068,204 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.69 | $6,242,068,204 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.69 | $6,242,068,204 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.69 | $6,242,068,204 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.69 | $6,242,068,204 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.69 | $6,242,068,204 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.69 | $6,242,068,204 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.82 | $6,254,190,323 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.82 | $6,254,190,323 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.82 | $6,254,190,323 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.82 | $6,254,190,323 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.82 | $6,254,190,323 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.82 | $6,254,190,323 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.82 | $6,254,190,323 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.82 | $6,254,190,323 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.82 | $6,254,190,323 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.82 | $6,254,190,323 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.82 | $6,254,190,323 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.82 | $6,254,190,323 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.82 | $6,254,190,323 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.75 | $6,244,929,591 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.75 | $6,244,929,591 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.75 | $6,244,929,591 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.75 | $6,244,929,591 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.75 | $6,244,929,591 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.75 | $6,244,929,591 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.75 | $6,244,929,591 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.73 | $6,240,986,734 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.73 | $6,240,986,734 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.73 | $6,240,986,734 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.73 | $6,240,986,734 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.73 | $6,240,986,734 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.73 | $6,240,986,734 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.73 | $6,240,986,734 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.73 | $6,238,384,141 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.73 | $6,238,384,141 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.73 | $6,238,384,141 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.73 | $6,238,384,141 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.73 | $6,238,384,141 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.73 | $6,238,384,141 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.73 | $6,238,384,141 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.73 | $6,238,389,663 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.73 | $6,238,384,141 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.73 | $6,238,384,141 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.73 | $6,238,384,141 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.73 | $6,238,384,141 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.73 | $6,238,384,141 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.73 | $6,238,384,141 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.73 | $6,238,384,141 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.73 | $6,238,384,141 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.73 | $6,238,384,141 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.73 | $6,238,384,141 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.73 | $6,238,384,141 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.73 | $6,238,384,141 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.73 | $6,238,384,141 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.73 | $6,238,384,141 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.73 | $6,238,384,141 | 7 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.