agilon health, Inc. (AGL)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$88.50+2.34%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AGL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -63.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 67.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AGL — CTO transition
Dated 2026-07-22
Chief Technology Officer — Girish Venkatachaliah: Mr. Venkatachaliah's employment with the company will terminate effective August 1, 2026.
Why it matters: Increasing cash flow is crucial for growth. It shows better cash management.
Supportive ifQ2 cash from operating activities is over $23.728M.
Worry ifQ2 cash from operating activities falls below $23.728M.
Why it matters: The new CEO's plans can affect investor trust and company success. A good response is important.
Watch forGood comments from analysts or a rise in stock price after the CEO's new plans.
Also watch forBad reactions from analysts or a drop in stock price after the CEO's plans are shared.
Why it matters: Clear plans from the new CEO show a strong path for growth. This shows stable leadership.
Watch forTim O'Rourke talks about plans to make operations better.
Also watch forNo clear plans were shared by Tim O'Rourke in three months.
Why it matters: Stable membership shows good contracts and market position. It helps long-term growth.
Supportive ifTotal members reported at or above 539,000.
Worry ifTotal members were less than 539,000.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$302 on $10,000 · ±3.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,052 loss on $10,000 · 10.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,489 loss on $10,000 · 74.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows better financial health and efficiency. It helps support growth plans.
Supportive ifCash from operations stays positive, over $23 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations goes negative again in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means improved efficiency and stability. It is important for growth.
Supportive ifCash from operations was closer to breakeven, less than -$33.6 million.
Worry ifCash from operations was worse than -$33.6 million.
Why it matters: Positive operating income means the company is making progress. It shows they are managing costs well.
Supportive ifOperating income was above $0 in Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating income was below $0 in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: If the health care sector's revenue growth speeds up, it could help agilon health's performance. This would signal a better market environment.
Supportive ifHealth care sector revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifHealth care sector revenue growth remains below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Stabilizing revenue growth is key for long-term success. A drop signals trouble.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth stabilizes or increases year over year from $1.420B.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue declines further year over year from $1.420B.
Why it matters: A new CEO can change company direction. Investor sentiment may shift.
Watch forThe market reacted positively. The stock price went up after the CEO announcement.
Also watch forThe market reacted negatively. The stock price went down after the CEO announcement.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating this revenue target shows strong growth and good strategy execution.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 total revenue reported at or above $1.475 billion.
Worry ifQ3 2026 total revenue was below $1.445 billion.
Why it matters: Stable membership shows good contract management and a strong growth plan.
Supportive ifTotal members live on platform reported between 539,000 and 552,000.
Worry ifTotal members live on platform reported below 535,000.
Why it matters: This margin shows good cost control and strong operations.
Supportive ifMedical margin was at or above $105 million.
Worry ifMedical margin was below $100 million.