agilon health, Inc. (AGL)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$113.77+18.23%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AGL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -66.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 70.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers
AGL — CTO transition
Dated 2026-07-22
Chief Technology Officer — Girish Venkatachaliah: Mr. Venkatachaliah's employment with the company will terminate effective August 1, 2026.
Why it matters: Cash from operations improved but stayed negative in the first half of 2026. A positive result would show less need to use cash to run the business.
Supportive ifCash from operations is above zero in the next reported half-year period.
Worry ifCash from operations stays below zero in the next reported half-year period.
Why it matters: The company raised its full-year guide to $75 million to $95 million. Falling short would weaken the profit recovery story.
Worry if2026 Adjusted EBITDA is below $75 million for the full year.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA is at least $75 million and within the $75 million to $95 million guide.
Why it matters: Agilon guided to $105 million to $115 million. A lower result would point to weaker care costs or claims results.
Worry ifQ3 medical margin is below $105 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 medical margin is at least $105 million and within the $105 million to $115 million guide.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$223 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,052 loss on $10,000 · 10.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,898 loss on $10,000 · 69.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.