Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Argan, Inc. (AGX)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$261.21-10.13%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
15.77 → 15.77 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AGX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Quarterly dividend maintained at $0.50 per share | The company increased its dividend from $0.375 to $0.50 per share. | Intact | dividend falls below $0.38 per share | Dividend per share: $0.50 per share FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.50 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Sep 2, 20260.5 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 3, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AGX is an execution-led industrial growth story, supported by project backlog and robust earnings quality. The multi-year view is intact, but risk is elevated and the industrial sector backdrop is a headwind.
The evidence describes AGX as cheap versus peers, with expectations below the model’s view and low pricing fragility. This suggests the market is not demanding especially strong results, though the valuation evidence is based on a high-confidence model.
Near term, revenue execution has been strong: quarterly revenue rose from $193.7 million to $291.0 million, while backlog edged down from $2.9 billion to $2.8 billion. Management has consistently raised the dividend, and the recent acquisition may expand Teledata, but its growth impact is not yet demonstrated. A guidance cut or weaker industry conditions would challenge the near-term picture.
The multi-year thesis hinges on continued conversion of backlog into revenue without a sustained decline in project work. Near term, AGX guidance and results from sector bellwethers PWR, FIX, and EME are key signals. A guidance cut or weaker peer results would weaken the setup, while continued peer strength could support the industrial backdrop.
For the next one to three years, AGX’s thesis is supported by strong recent execution, but a modest backlog decline and sector headwinds leave meaningful uncertainty. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit improved with operating income rising from $30.1M to $45.4M. |
| Improving |
| operating income falls below $30.1 million |
Operating income: $56.805M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=45.4 million USD. The stored target says 2027-Q1; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Sep 2, 202656,805,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “For the quarter ended April 30, 2026, Argan's consolidated gross profit was $61.1 million, or 21.0% of c onsolidated revenues, compared to $36.9 million, or 19.0% of consolidated revenues, for the quarter ended April 30, 2025.” “Consolidated gross profit for Fiscal 2026 increased to approximately $193.7 million, or 20.5% of consolidated revenues, compared to consolidated gross profit of $141.0 million, or 16.1% of consolidated revenues, reported for Fiscal 2025.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Project backlog reaches at least $2.9 billion | Argan grows revenue by expanding its project backlog from $1.4B to $2.9B. | Intact | project backlog falls below $1.4 billion | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “First Quarter Results Consolidated revenues for the quarter ended April 30, 2026, were $291.0 million, an increase of $97.3 milli on, or 50.2%, from consolidated revenues of $193.7 million reported for the comparable prior-year quarter.” “As of January 31, 2026, consolidated project backlog was approximately $2.9 billion, as compared to approximately $1.4 billion at January 31, 2025.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$15.63 → $15.77 · observed estimates
$1.61B → $1.69B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $15.63 | $1,607,278,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $15.63 | $1,607,278,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $15.63 | $1,607,278,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $15.63 | $1,607,278,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $15.63 | $1,607,278,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $15.63 | $1,607,278,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $15.63 | $1,607,278,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $15.63 | $1,607,278,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $15.63 | $1,607,278,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $15.63 | $1,607,278,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $15.63 | $1,607,278,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $15.63 | $1,607,278,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $15.63 | $1,607,278,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $15.63 | $1,607,278,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $15.63 | $1,607,278,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $15.63 | $1,607,278,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $15.63 | $1,607,278,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $15.63 | $1,607,278,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $15.63 | $1,607,278,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $15.63 | $1,607,278,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $15.63 | $1,607,278,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $15.63 | $1,607,278,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $15.63 | $1,607,278,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $15.63 | $1,607,278,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $15.63 | $1,607,278,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $15.63 | $1,607,278,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $15.63 | $1,607,278,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $15.63 | $1,607,278,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $15.42 | $1,600,878,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $15.42 | $1,600,878,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $15.42 | $1,600,878,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $15.42 | $1,600,878,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $15.42 | $1,600,878,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $15.42 | $1,600,878,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $15.42 | $1,600,878,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $15.42 | $1,600,878,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $15.42 | $1,600,878,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $15.42 | $1,600,878,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $15.42 | $1,600,878,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $15.42 | $1,600,878,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $15.42 | $1,600,878,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $15.42 | $1,600,878,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $15.61 | $1,616,538,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $15.42 | $1,657,172,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $15.42 | $1,657,172,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $15.42 | $1,657,172,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $15.42 | $1,657,172,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $15.42 | $1,657,172,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $15.88 | $1,684,821,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $15.88 | $1,684,821,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $15.88 | $1,684,821,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $15.88 | $1,684,821,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $15.88 | $1,684,821,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $15.88 | $1,684,821,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $15.88 | $1,684,821,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $15.88 | $1,684,821,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $15.88 | $1,684,821,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $15.88 | $1,684,821,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $15.88 | $1,684,821,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $15.88 | $1,684,821,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $15.88 | $1,684,821,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $15.88 | $1,684,821,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $15.88 | $1,684,821,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $15.88 | $1,684,821,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $15.88 | $1,684,821,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $15.88 | $1,684,821,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $15.88 | $1,684,821,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $15.88 | $1,684,821,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $15.88 | $1,684,821,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $15.77 | $1,687,321,333 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.