Argan, Inc. (AGX)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$290.66-16.53%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AGX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -36.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 32.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 69.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers
AGX — dividend update
Dated 2026-09-09
Other Events. On September 9, 2026, Argan, Inc. (“Argan”) issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors declared a 40% increase in the quarterly cash dividend, raising it from $0.50 to $0.70 per common share. The dividend will be payable on October 30, 2026, to stockholders of record at the close of business on October 22, 2026.
Why it matters: Recent margins improved, but Argan cited weaker results in some Industrial and Teledata projects. A sharp drop would weaken profit growth.
Worry ifConsolidated gross margin falls below 18.6%. That was the reported margin in the same quarter last year.
Less concerning ifConsolidated gross margin stays at or above 19.3%, the level from the latest quarter.
Why it matters: The plant is set to support more vessel work for data centers. An on-time opening would help Argan serve that demand.
Supportive ifArgan reports that the North Carolina plant was completed next quarter, as planned, and is ready for work.
Worry ifArgan reports a delay beyond the next quarter, or says the plant is not ready for work.
Why it matters: ValCor expands Teledata's reach and customer base. Sales growth with steady margins would show the deal is adding value.
Supportive ifTeledata revenue rises from a year ago in the next report. Its gross margin stays at or above last year's level.
Worry ifTeledata revenue falls year over year, or its gross margin falls below the prior-year level.
Why it matters: Backlog fell from $2.93 billion in January to $2.52 billion in July. New awards must replace work as projects move ahead.
Supportive ifAt the December 3 earnings report, backlog is above $2.52 billion, with new contracts added to the total.
Worry ifBacklog falls below $2.52 billion, or the company reports few new contract awards.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$267 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $779 loss on $10,000 · 7.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,360 loss on $10,000 · 63.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Power drove much of recent growth. Strong sales and margins would show that project work is moving ahead well.
Supportive ifPower revenue grows year over year, and its gross margin stays at or above 22%.
Worry ifPower revenue falls year over year, or gross margin drops below 22%.
Why it matters: The report can show whether growth continues despite a softer industrial sector backdrop. Check sales, margins, and backlog together.
Watch forThe December 3 report shows revenue growth from a year ago, gross margin at or above 19.3%, and backlog above $2.52 billion.
Also watch forThe December 3 report shows revenue down from a year ago, gross margin below 18.6%, or backlog below $2.52 billion.