Argan, Inc. (AGX)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$417.99+1.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AGX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -19.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 24.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 44.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AGX — dividend update
Dated 2026-06-10
Other Events. On June 10, 2026, Argan issued a press release announcing that its Board declared a regular quarterly cash dividend in the amount of $0.50 per share of common stock, payable on July 31, 2026 to stockholders of record at the close of business on July 23, 2026. A copy of Argan’s Press Release is attached to this report as Exhibit 99.2 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong demand for Argan's services. This helps revenue growth.
Supportive ifProject backlog rises to over $2.9 billion. This shows strong contract additions.
Worry ifProject backlog falls or stays below $2.8 billion. This suggests weaker demand.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show that management believes in the company's worth.
Supportive ifThey announced share buybacks from the new $200 million program.
Worry ifNo share repurchases have been announced or done.
Why it matters: New contracts would confirm strong demand in the industrial sector and support revenue growth.
Supportive ifNew industrial contracts are coming. This is true for data center projects.
Worry ifNo new contracts in the industrial area may show possible demand problems.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue growth continues and if margins improve.
Watch forEarnings per share is over $3.24. This shows strong performance continues.
Also watch forEarnings per share falls below $2.50, suggesting a decline in performance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$273 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $746 loss on $10,000 · 7.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,931 loss on $10,000 · 49.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in backlog will indicate how well the company is securing new contracts. A growing backlog supports revenue growth.
Supportive ifProject backlog goes up to over $2.9 billion.
Worry ifProject backlog falls below $2.7 billion.
Why it matters: Finishing the facility on time helps growth in the industrial segment. Delays may show execution problems.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of the facility being completed by the end of Q3 2027.
Worry ifDelay in the completion of the facility beyond Q3 2027.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth signals effective project execution and backlog management. It shows demand for services is high.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 50% year over year compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is less than 30% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in net income may show trouble keeping profits.
Worry ifNet income reported below $40 million in Q2.
Less concerning ifNet income remains at or above $46 million.
Why it matters: A fall in gross margin may mean higher costs or problems in project work.
Worry ifGross margin reported below 20% in Q2.
Less concerning ifGross margin remains at or above 21%.
Why it matters: This report will show if revenue growth continues and if margins hold. It is key for assessing financial health.
Watch forQ3 revenue growth exceeds 50% year-over-year.
Also watch forQ3 revenue growth falls below 30% year-over-year.
Why it matters: More acquisitions could help Argan grow its market share and revenue in Teledata.
Supportive ifA new purchase in the Teledata segment might be announced in the next six months.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions are expected in the Teledata segment in the next six months.
Why it matters: New contracts would indicate strong demand and growth potential for Argan's services.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new contracts valued at over $50 million.
Worry ifNo new significant contracts announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A drop in backlog could signal weakening demand for Argan's services. This would raise concerns about future revenue growth.
Worry ifThe project backlog is below $2.5 billion in the next report.
Less concerning ifThe project backlog is above $2.5 billion. This shows there is still demand.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows strong cash flow. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifQuarterly dividend remains at $0.50 per share in the next announcement.
Worry ifQuarterly dividend is cut below $0.50 per share.