Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Arteris, Inc. (AIP)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$18.10-2.84%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.12 → 0.12 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AIP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow improves to $7 million in 2026 | Free cash flow should improve to $7 million next year. | Improving | Free cash flow falls below $5 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $8.615M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $7 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20268,615,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AIP is a high-risk growth business, not yet a proven durable compounder, because it remains loss-making. Its multi-year view is mixed: revenue growth is on track, while operating improvement is not yet clear.
The valuation evidence shows AIP at a 1.23 premium to peers, with expectations above what the model supports; model confidence is low. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to a clear expectations cushion.
Near-term revenue has grown, and customer design starts are up year over year, but operating losses widened through 2026-Q2. Free cash flow guidance improved, though first-half operating cash flow was limited; repeated earnings misses and weaker company momentum add risk into the next results.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on revenue growth translating into better operating results and cash generation, without another guidance cut. Rate cuts or stabilization among major technology companies could support the sector backdrop, while further misses would challenge the thesis.
For the next 1 to 3 years, AIP has evidence of demand growth but has not yet shown consistent progress toward profitability. The long-term thesis remains watchful and hinges on execution, with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “- August 6, 2026 - Arteris, Inc. (Nasdaq: AIP), a leading provider of semiconductor technology for accelerating innovation in the AI era, today announced financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026 and provided estimated third quarter and updated full year 2026 guidance.” “- May 12, 2026 - Arteris, Inc. (Nasdaq: AIP), a leading provider of semiconductor technology for accelerating innovation in the AI era, today announced financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 and provided estimated second quarter and updated full year 2026 guidance.”
Operating income improves from negative $9.3 million | A supporting condition in Arteris, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Operating loss narrows from -$9.3 million. | Broken | Operating loss worsens beyond -$9.3 million | Operating income: $-13.908M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss narrows from -$9.3 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 2026-13,908,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “- August 6, 2026 - Arteris, Inc. (Nasdaq: AIP), a leading provider of semiconductor technology for accelerating innovation in the AI era, today announced financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026 and provided estimated third quarter and updated full year 2026 guidance.” “- May 12, 2026 - Arteris, Inc. (Nasdaq: AIP), a leading provider of semiconductor technology for accelerating innovation in the AI era, today announced financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 and provided estimated second quarter and updated full year 2026 guidance.” Operating income was $-13.908 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue reaches about $93 million in 2026 | Arteris aims to grow revenue to about $93 million in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $91 million in FY26 | Revenue: $24.134M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$93 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202624,134,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “"In the second quarter we delivered multiple record-breaking results, including new highs in Annual Contract Value plus royalties exiting the quarter at $99.5 million, up 44% year-over-year, and record revenue, royalties and Remaining Performance Obligation” said K.” ““Arteris delivered a strong first quarter to start the year, achieving a record Annual Contract Value plus royalties of $92.8 million , up 39% year-over-year, and new highs in revenues, royalties and remaining performance obligation,” said K.” Revenue was $24.134 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.16 → $0.12 · observed estimates
$0.12B → $0.12B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.16 | $115,064,800 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.16 | $115,064,800 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.16 | $115,064,800 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.16 | $115,064,800 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.16 | $115,064,800 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.16 | $115,064,800 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.16 | $115,064,800 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.16 | $115,064,800 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.16 | $115,064,800 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.16 | $115,064,800 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.16 | $115,064,800 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.16 | $115,064,800 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.16 | $115,064,800 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.15 | $115,087,330 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.13 | $115,166,500 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.15 | $115,087,330 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.15 | $115,087,330 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.15 | $115,087,330 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.16 | $117,187,330 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.16 | $117,187,330 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.15 | $117,123,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.13 | $115,166,500 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.13 | $115,166,500 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.13 | $115,166,500 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.13 | $115,166,500 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.13 | $115,166,500 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.13 | $115,166,500 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.13 | $115,166,500 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.12 | $117,123,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.12 | $116,962,571 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.12 | $116,962,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.12 | $116,962,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.12 | $116,962,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.12 | $116,962,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.12 | $116,962,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.12 | $116,962,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.12 | $116,962,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.12 | $116,962,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.12 | $116,962,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.12 | $116,962,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.12 | $116,962,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.12 | $116,962,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.12 | $116,962,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.12 | $116,962,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.12 | $116,962,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.12 | $116,962,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.12 | $116,962,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.12 | $116,962,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.12 | $116,962,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.12 | $116,962,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.12 | $116,962,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.12 | $116,962,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.12 | $116,962,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.12 | $116,962,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.12 | $116,962,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.12 | $116,962,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.12 | $117,030,429 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.12 | $117,030,429 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.12 | $117,030,429 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.12 | $117,030,429 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.12 | $117,030,429 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.12 | $117,030,429 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.12 | $117,030,429 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.12 | $117,030,429 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.12 | $117,030,429 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.12 | $117,030,429 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.12 | $117,030,429 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.12 | $117,030,429 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.12 | $117,030,429 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.12 | $117,030,429 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.12 | $117,030,429 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.12 | $117,030,429 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.