Arteris, Inc. (AIP)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$21.37+3.34%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AIP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -22.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 27.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 49.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AIP — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026 , Arteris, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 . A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this
Why it matters: Missing earnings would show the company is still having financial problems.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows a loss greater than analysts' expectations.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings report meets or beats what analysts expect.
Why it matters: His leadership could help with money management and boost investor trust.
Supportive ifGood changes in operating income or free cash flow after Sinha's start on September 8, 2026.
Worry ifOngoing drop in operating income or free cash flow after he starts.
Why it matters: Winning a big customer would prove Arteris' tech and growth plan in AI.
Supportive ifA new contract was announced with a top AI chip maker.
Worry ifNo new significant customer wins announced in the AI sector.
Why it matters: Updates on cash flow guidance will show if the company is improving its capital management. This is key for long-term health.
Supportive ifFree cash flow guidance is now above $9.0M. This shows better cash management.
Worry ifFree cash flow guidance lowered below $5.0M, showing worsening cash flow issues.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$345 on $10,000 · ±3.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $760 loss on $10,000 · 7.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,744 loss on $10,000 · 57.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the sector drops, it could hurt Arteris' performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median level.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above median.
Why it matters: Earnings that meet or exceed expectations can restore investor confidence. It is crucial after the recent earnings miss.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings were at or above what analysts expected.
Worry ifQ2 earnings were below what analysts expected.
Why it matters: A new CFO can change financial strategy and investor confidence. This is a key leadership change.
Worry ifThe new CFO has a plan that stabilizes or improves financial results.
Less concerning ifNew CFO fails to stabilize metrics, leading to further declines in performance.
Why it matters: Falling below this level could show weaker demand and growth problems.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance is set between $24.0 million and $25.0 million, and falling below $24 million confirms downside.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue guidance meets or exceeds $25 million, indicating strong demand.
Why it matters: Going above this number shows strong customer loyalty and more demand.
Supportive ifACV plus royalties exceeds $103 million in Q3.
Worry ifACV plus royalties stays below $99 million.
Why it matters: An operating loss over $3 million shows worse financial health. This may hurt investor trust.
Worry ifOperating loss exceeds $3 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifOperating loss stays at or below $3 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Better operating income is key for long-term profit. It shows how well costs are managed.
Supportive ifOperating income improves to less than -$9.3M. This shows better cost control.
Worry ifOperating income worsens beyond -$9.3M. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: A drop could mean less customer interest and slower new ideas.
Worry ifDesign starts growth is below 21% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifDesign starts growth is at or above 21% year-over-year. This shows ongoing customer interest.
Why it matters: A rise in ACV shows strong customer engagement and growth potential. It is a key metric for future revenue.
Supportive ifACV reported at or above $95 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifACV reported below $95 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A drop could indicate cash management issues and impact growth plans.
Worry ifFree cash flow guidance falls below $5 million for FY 2026.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow guidance is at or above $5 million. This shows better cash handling.
Why it matters: The CFO transition could affect financial strategy and performance in the near term.
Worry ifThe company shows steady financial performance even with a new CFO.
Less concerning ifFinancial performance drops a lot after the CFO change.
Why it matters: The CFO change can affect financial plans and stability. It may change investor trust.
Worry ifAnnouncement of a new CFO with a strong background.
Less concerning ifThere is still uncertainty about hiring a new CFO.
Why it matters: A timely CFO appointment is key for financial stability and growth. It impacts investor trust.
Supportive ifA new CFO is appointed and announced before August 31, 2026.
Worry ifNo new CFO is appointed by August 31, 2026.