Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
AIRO Group Holdings, Inc. (AIRO)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.78-11.81%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AIRO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Negative adjusted EBITDA in mid- to high-teens million range in 2026 | A primary condition in AIRO Group Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Adjusted EBITDA between -$15M and -$10M in 2026. | Broken | Adjusted EBITDA loss exceeds -$15M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AIRO represents a speculative growth investment. The company is focused on achieving significant revenue growth while managing losses, which makes it a high-risk, high-reward scenario.
The market currently prices AIRO as a cheap option compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. This suggests that investors are not fully factoring in the potential for revenue growth or the risks associated with its recent financial performance.
Management is on track to achieve its revenue growth targets, with a strong backlog supporting future sales. However, recent financial performance has been weak, and the company is expected to maintain negative Adjusted EBITDA, indicating ongoing challenges.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for AIRO. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could impact AIRO's momentum.
In the next 1 to 3 years, AIRO's performance will depend on its ability to convert backlog into revenue and navigate sector dynamics. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Management is stable despite losses. |
| Intact |
| Significant management turnover or strategy failure reported |
No turnover reported; Q2 rev +76% vs 15-25% target Q2 revenue up 76% YoY; full-year guidance reiterated at 15-25%; no management turnover or strategy failure reported. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve 15% to 25% revenue growth in 2026 | A primary condition in AIRO Group Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 15% to 25% revenue growth in 2026. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 15% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 75.88% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 15% to 25% revenue growth in 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 202675.884564 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company expects the majority of this backlog to convert to revenue over the next 12 months, providing strong visibility into future growth.” “This figure excludes its U.S. backlog, which is expected to meaningfully increase the overall backlog once included, while the Company’s broader pipeline continues to expand.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.18 → $-0.74 · observed estimates
$0.17B → $0.17B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.18 | $170,126,733 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.18 | $170,126,733 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.18 | $170,126,733 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.18 | $170,126,733 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.18 | $170,126,733 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.19 | $165,740,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.19 | $165,740,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.19 | $165,740,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.19 | $165,740,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.19 | $165,740,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.19 | $165,740,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.19 | $165,740,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.19 | $165,740,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.19 | $165,740,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.18 | $170,126,733 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.19 | $165,740,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.19 | $165,740,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.19 | $165,740,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.19 | $165,740,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.19 | $165,740,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.18 | $170,126,733 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.18 | $170,126,733 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.18 | $170,126,733 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.18 | $170,126,733 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.18 | $170,126,733 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.18 | $170,126,733 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.18 | $170,126,733 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.49 | $165,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.49 | $165,226,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.49 | $165,226,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.49 | $165,226,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.49 | $165,226,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.49 | $165,226,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.49 | $165,226,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.49 | $165,226,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.49 | $165,226,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.49 | $165,226,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.49 | $165,226,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.49 | $165,226,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.49 | $165,226,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.49 | $165,226,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.49 | $165,226,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.49 | $165,193,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.49 | $165,193,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.49 | $165,193,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.49 | $165,193,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.49 | $165,193,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.49 | $165,193,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.49 | $165,193,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.88 | $165,193,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.88 | $165,193,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.88 | $165,193,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.88 | $165,193,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.88 | $165,193,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.88 | $165,193,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.88 | $165,193,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.88 | $165,193,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.88 | $165,193,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.88 | $165,193,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.88 | $165,193,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.88 | $165,193,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.88 | $165,193,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.88 | $165,193,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.88 | $165,193,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.88 | $165,193,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.88 | $165,193,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.88 | $165,193,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.88 | $165,193,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.74 | $167,645,050 | 2 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.