AIRO Group Holdings, Inc. (AIRO)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.78-11.81%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AIRO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -43.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 47.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 350 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 91.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers
AIRO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-14
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed to be filed for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to liabilities of that Section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act or the Exchange Act except as expressly set forth…
Why it matters: AIRO plans a full-year Adjusted EBITDA loss in the mid- to high-teens millions. A larger loss would point to higher costs or weaker results.
Worry ifAIRO lowers its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA loss outlook below the mid- to high-teens millions. Or, it reports spending that puts the loss above that range.
Less concerning ifAIRO keeps its guided loss range and reports Q3 spending in line with that plan.
Why it matters: AIRO tied its 2026 revenue plan to drone sales and backlog deliveries. Q3 results test that plan.
Supportive ifOn the November 13, 2026 earnings call, AIRO keeps its 15%–25% full-year revenue growth range and reports Q3 growth that supports it.
Worry ifAIRO cuts its 2026 revenue growth range below 15%, or reports Q3 revenue below Q2's $43.2 million.
Why it matters: AIRO said most of this backlog should become revenue within 12 months. Late deliveries could slow growth.
Supportive ifQ3 results show drone revenue rose from Q2's $43.2 million. Management says most of the $163 million backlog remains on track to ship within 12 months.
Worry ifManagement says the plan to deliver the 12-month backlog has slipped, or Q3 revenue falls below Q2's $43.2 million.
Why it matters: The $163 million backlog excludes U.S. orders, which AIRO said could raise the total. Reporting them would clarify demand.
Supportive ifAIRO reports a total drone backlog that includes U.S. orders and exceeds the June 30 figure of $163 million.
Worry ifAIRO reports no U.S. backlog addition, or says the added orders do not raise backlog above $163 million.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$295 on $10,000 · ±3.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $830 loss on $10,000 · 8.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,671 loss on $10,000 · 66.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: AIRO called Training capital-intensive and is reviewing its role. A clear decision would show how it plans to focus spending.
Watch forAIRO announces a sale, exit, or other plan that cuts Training's need for ongoing investment.
Also watch forAIRO confirms it will keep Training and fund its ongoing investment needs.
Why it matters: AIRO targeted a first flight this year. A delay could push back planned sales and use of these aircraft.
Supportive ifAIRO confirms that the JX250 or JC250 completed its first flight by December 31, 2026.
Worry ifAIRO reports no first flight by December 31, 2026, or moves the first-flight target into 2027.