AIRO Group Holdings, Inc. (AIRO)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.40+4.52%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AIRO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -33.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 39.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 308 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 73.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AIRO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-14
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed to be filed for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to liabilities of that Section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act or the Exchange Act except as expressly set forth…
Why it matters: Better sector growth could help AIRO's revenue. It shows a good environment for industrials.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth goes above 5% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth continues to decline or remains below 5%.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insight into revenue growth and financial health. This is crucial for investor sentiment.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth over 15% and better EBITDA.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 10% and continued losses.
Why it matters: Certification would open new procurement opportunities. It is key for AIRO's growth in the drone market.
Supportive ifAIRO will announce Blue UAS certification soon.
Worry ifNo announcement of Blue UAS certification by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on backlog conversion show how well AIRO is turning orders into sales. This impacts future revenue.
Supportive ifThe backlog of over $150 million is turning into revenue as expected.
Worry ifBacklog conversion to revenue falls short of expectations.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$373 on $10,000 · ±3.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $860 loss on $10,000 · 8.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,206 loss on $10,000 · 72.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights on revenue growth and EBITDA. It is a key event for investors.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth of 15% or more and confirms negative EBITDA.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth under 15%. It also shows positive EBITDA guidance.
Why it matters: The negative Adjusted EBITDA guidance shows management is focused on costs. It shows they make smart investments.
Worry ifQ2 Adjusted EBITDA guidance is still negative, in the mid- to high-teens.
Less concerning ifQ2 Adjusted EBITDA guidance is not as negative as mid-teens.
Why it matters: Turning backlog into sales shows future revenue growth.
Supportive ifMajority of the $163 million drone backlog converts to revenue within the next 12 months.
Worry ifLess than 50% of the backlog converts to revenue in the next 12 months.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA shows the company keeps costs down. It can still grow.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA improves to a loss less than $(12) million in Q3.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA worsens to a loss greater than $(15) million in Q3.
Why it matters: Growth in the drone backlog signals strong future revenue potential. This is key for AIRO's growth strategy.
Supportive ifThe drone backlog is over $163 million. This shows strong demand and clear revenue.
Worry ifDrone backlog does not grow or declines from $163 million.
Why it matters: The launch of the RQ-70 could enhance AIRO's market position and attract new customers.
Supportive ifOfficial announcement of the RQ-70 ISR platform launch.
Worry ifNo announcement or delays in the RQ-70 ISR platform launch.
Why it matters: Meeting revenue growth goals shows AIRO can grow and follow its plan well.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth of 15% or more year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 15% year-over-year.