AirSculpt Technologies, Inc. (AIRS)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.80+10.24%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AIRS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -60.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 62.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 27 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AIRS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 10, 2026 , AirSculpt Technologies, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for the purpose of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934…
Why it matters: Paying off debt on time shows financial health. It also shows management's commitment to lowering debt.
Supportive ifManagement will make the $2.5 million loan payment by September 30, 2026.
Worry ifManagement fails to make the $2.5 million payment by the deadline.
Why it matters: A shift in management direction could signal new strategies for growth. This is key for a company facing challenges.
Watch forAirSculpt announces a new strategic plan or leadership change.
Also watch forManagement has not changed. There are no new plans.
Why it matters: Stable or rising case volume shows strong demand for AirSculpt's services.
Supportive ifCase volume grows or stabilizes above 3,082 in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCase volume declines below 3,082 in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide updates on revenue and profitability. This can shift market views.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth and meets or exceeds expectations.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue drop or does not meet expectations.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$293 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,122 loss on $10,000 · 11.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,644 loss on $10,000 · 86.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a positive shift for AirSculpt. This may help improve its current loss-making status.
Supportive ifHealth Care sector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is close to 10% or more.
Worry ifRevenue growth keeps slowing down. It is now below 10%.
Why it matters: Better adjusted EBITDA means lower costs and more profit. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA was $12 million or more for Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was less than $12 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Strong sales growth at the same centers shows recovery. It also shows demand for AirSculpt's services.
Supportive ifSame center sales growth exceeds 1% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifSame center sales growth is less than or equal to 1% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping revenue guidance shows management's confidence in growth. This is true even with recent declines.
Supportive ifManagement reaffirms full year 2026 revenue guidance of $151 to $157 million.
Worry ifManagement cuts revenue guidance to less than $151 million.
Why it matters: New services can attract more patients and drive revenue growth.
Supportive ifThere will be news about new services or partnerships, like the AlloClae deal.
Worry ifNo announcement of new services or partnerships in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating this revenue target shows sales are stabilizing. It also backs management's guidance for the year.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is $38.5 million or more. This shows positive sales growth.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is less than $38.5 million. This suggests sales are still declining.
Why it matters: Launching new services could grow the customer base and increase revenue. It shows management's plan to improve offerings.
Supportive ifThere is a successful launch of new services with AlloClae.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in launching new services. This shows possible execution problems.
Why it matters: Reducing debt helps with financial flexibility. It also builds trust with investors. This shows management cares about how they use money.
Supportive ifGross debt reduced by at least $2.5 million by September 30, 2026.
Worry ifNo drop in gross debt shows possible liquidity problems.