Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$325.57+0.96%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AIT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 20.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers
AIT — director transition
Dated 2026-06-25
Director — Mary Dean Hall: Resigned as a director, effective at the next annual meeting.
Why it matters: This will show if the company is actively executing its share buyback plan.
Supportive ifThey announced share buybacks of at least 1 million shares in Q1 FY27.
Worry ifNo share repurchase announcements made in Q1 FY27.
Why it matters: Management expects EPS to be between $11.65 and $12.15. This is important for investor trust.
Supportive ifFiscal 2027 EPS reported within the guided range of $11.65 to $12.15.
Worry ifFiscal 2027 EPS reported below $11.65.
Why it matters: This will show if growth momentum is weakening as fiscal 2027 begins.
Worry ifOrganic sales growth reported below 7% year over year for Q1 FY27.
Less concerning ifOrganic sales growth reported above 7% year over year for Q1 FY27.
Why it matters: Global events can change trade and demand. Knowing their effects is important for future plans.
Worry ifManagement says demand or orders are down because of global issues.
Less concerning ifManagement says global events do not greatly change demand or orders.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$101 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $245 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,286 loss on $10,000 · 12.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Completing the share buyback program could signal confidence in cash flow and support share price.
Supportive ifThe company completes the repurchase of 3 million shares by the end of the fiscal year.
Worry ifThe company says there will be a delay or cut in the share buyback program.
Why it matters: When management buys back shares, it shows they believe in the company's worth. Updates on how this is done are important.
Supportive ifThey announced that they bought back shares from the 3 million share program.
Worry ifNo updates on share repurchase progress within the next quarter.
Why it matters: This shows that management is worried about market conditions that affect growth.
Worry ifFiscal 2027 sales growth guidance revised down to below 4%.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2027 sales growth guidance maintained or raised to above 4%.
Why it matters: Changes in world events could change demand and how the company operates.
Watch forManagement says there is no negative effect from world events on Q4 guidance.
Also watch forManagement lowers Q4 guidance due to concerns about world events.
Why it matters: Better margins mean lower costs and more profit. Lower margins can raise worries about efficiency.
Watch forGross profit margin increases above 12.4%.
Also watch forGross profit margin decreases below 12.2%.
Why it matters: Better indicators may lead to stronger demand for Applied's products.
Supportive ifReports of positive trends in U.S. industrial macro indicators.
Worry ifReports of declining or stagnant U.S. industrial macro indicators.
Why it matters: This will indicate if the company is struggling with cost management as it grows.
Worry ifEBITDA margins reported below 12.5% for Q1 FY27.
Less concerning ifEBITDA margins reported at or above 12.5% for Q1 FY27.
Why it matters: What management says about risks can change how investors feel and their growth hopes.
Watch forManagement notes strong demand trends even with risks.
Also watch forManagement points out big negative effects from risks on their guidance.