Assurant (AIZ)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-05
$306.87-0.53%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AIZ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 30 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AIZ — officer change
Dated 2026-05-22
The filing pertains to an amendment of the equity incentive plan, not a management change.
Why it matters: Management tied its higher repurchase plan to strong capital and cash. Lower repurchases could signal less room for capital returns.
Supportive ifAssurant reports 2026 share repurchases of at least $325 million.
Worry ifAssurant buys back less than $300 million in shares in 2026.
Why it matters: Housing earnings grew 18% in Q2 before catastrophe costs, helped by lower-than-usual claims. A return to higher claims could erase that gain.
Watch forQ3 Global Housing adjusted EBITDA grows year over year, excluding catastrophes. Catastrophe costs are no more than Q2's $12.2 million.
Also watch forQ3 Global Housing adjusted EBITDA, without catastrophe costs, falls year over year. Or catastrophe costs rise above $12.2 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$81 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $193 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,317 loss on $10,000 · 13.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.